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VEGOILS-Palm Oil Rises On Weather Fears, USDA Report Eyed
calendar12-01-2012 | linkReuters | Share This Post:

12/01/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures inched up on Wednesday as prospects of lower edible oil output in South America and Southeast Asia offset worries over the euro zone debt crisis. 

Investors remained cautious ahead of the Spanish and Italian debt auctions on Thursday and Friday as any signs of the debt crisis worsening could lower global economic growth and commodity demand.

But concerns of dry weather in South America and heavy rains in Southeast Asia potentially hurting output could boost palm oil futures that are up more than 1.5 percent so far this year.

Gains were however limited by Malaysian's opening palm oil stocks for 2012 that stayed above the psychological level of 2 million tonnes.

"Traders are mainly still in a puzzle mode over the bearish MPOB data. They will be looking for the USDA report to drive the market," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur, referring to the U.S. Department of Agriculture report due Thursday.

Benchmark March palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange erased earlier losses to close 0.6 percent higher at 3,233 ringgit ($1,030) per tonne.

Traded volumes were thin at 16,062 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots, as investors were waiting for further cues.

Palm oil is expected to fall below 3,176 ringgit per tonne according to technical charts, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Tuesday that Malaysia's December palm oil stocks fell 1.5 percent from a month ago, better than expectations of a 5.7 percent decline based on a Reuters survey.

"The larger-than-expected stockpile is slightly negative for CPO price as it suggests that supplies are not as tight as expected," said CIMB analyst Ivy Ng in a research report. 

"But this is partially offset by ongoing concerns over drier-than-usual weather in South America's key plantation region and predictions that USDA may slash its supply estimates in its Thursday report," she added.  

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue January world crop reports which traders expect to show downgrades of South American crop forecasts.

The Malaysian weather office did not issue any flood warnings but the industry is keeping a close watch as heavy rains may disrupt palm oil production.

The market is also watching the export trends for signs of slowing demand for the tropical oil.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a 14 and 19 percent drop in Malaysia's palm oil exports for the Jan. 1-10 period, in line with industry's expectations.

Brent crude rose above $113 on Wednesday, reversing losses as a blast in Tehran added to concerns of supply disruption from Iran and overshadowed worries about demand growth due to Europe's debt crisis.

U.S. soyoil for March delivery eased 0.4 percent from an earlier weather-driven rally while the most active September 2012 soyoil contract on China's Dalian commodity exchange were almost flat. 
     
  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1003 GMT
                                                                  
  Contract                        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
  MY PALM OIL               JAN2    3215    -5.00    3200    3215      21
  MY PALM OIL               FEB2    3238   +19.00    3205    3240     884
  MY PALM OIL               MAR2    3233   +18.00    3194    3233    8303
  CHINA PALM OLEIN  SEP2    8172   -26.00    8132    8198   77544
  CHINA SOYOIL           SEP2    9122    -2.00    9082    9144  219284
  CBOT SOY OIL           MAR2   52.27    -0.23   52.20   52.45    3510
  NYMEX CRUDE          FEB2  102.22    -0.02  101.60  102.46   13121
                                                                  
  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel   
    ($1 = 3.14 ringgit)