23/08/2010 (Bangkok Post) - The economy should show a total 7.0-7.5 per cent growth this year following a 10.6 per cent growth in the first half, National Economic and Social Development Board secretary-general Ampon Kittiampon said on Monday.

Mr Ampon said the NESDB  reported that the economy in the second quarter expanded 9.1 per cent year-on-year and 0.2 per cent from the first quarter.
 
The NESDB's economic growth projection for 2010 had been raised to 7.0-7.5 per cent from 3.5-4.5 per cent year-on-year, he said.

This year's exports should grow 25.7 per cent from the initial projection at 15.5 per cent, while imports should expand 32.9 per cent from the previous forecast at 24.0 per cent. The country was expected to see a trade surplus of US$ 14.9 billion and a current account surplus of $15.1 billion, or 4.9 per cent of the gross domestic product.

The GDP for next year should grow at least four to five per cent if investments increased continually, Mr Ampon said.

The country's economy this year could see a 7.0-7.5 per cent growth under the assumption that the global economy will not turn sluggish, the country's political situation will ease, the inflation rate and oil prices will not fluctuate, the interest rate and liquidity will continue supporting loans and investment, and the weather situation will not hamper the agricultural sector.

The global economy and trade were the main driving force for the Thai economy, he said.

"The easing political situation has raised the confidence of consumers and investors, the interest rate is low, the tourism sector is reviving quickly and the agriculture sector should generate more revenue than last year," Mr Ampon said.

However, he said, the risk factors comprised the slow down of the world economy, the fluctuation of foreign capital movement and foreign exchange, the political instability, the drought situation which could reduce agricultural output and the fluctuating oil prices.

CP Intertrade chief operating officer Sumeth Laomoraphorn said the price of rice and other basic consumer products is likely increase in the next three months due to higher operating costs and next year's pay rise for state officials.

"There is a tendency for rice prices to move up in the next three to four months. A five-kilogramme bag of rice could rise from 10-12 baht a kilo to 10-15 baht," Mr Sumeth said.

Reports said producers were keen to raise their  prices. They believed the Commerce Ministry would not extend  its freeze  prices as it would distort the market mechanism. The freeze is due to end on Sept 30.

Producers believed the government's approval of base salary increases for civil servants from  April next year  would increase their spending power.

Prices needed to be raised because of rising operating costs, particularly the increased minimum labour wage. Producers are expected to seek  the Department of Internal Trade's permission to increase their prices by the beginning of next year.

Internal Trade Department director-general Watcharee Wimuktayon said her agency will discuss the price of crude palm oil and vegetable oil soon, following producerss complaints about  rising global oil prices. The price  of crude palm oil had been raised from 22-23 baht per kilogramme to 25 baht per kilogramme.

"Producers are expected to ask for permission to raise their  prices once the price freeze ends next month," Mrs Watcharee said.