03/06/2011 (Business Times) - Exports, which have been buoyed by commodities, are expected to slow down in April on the back of a correction in commodity prices, economists said.

A Business Times poll expects exports to register a 11 per cent average growth in April, with imports at 13 per cent and trade balance averaging RM9.96 billion.

The International Trade and Industry Ministry will release the latest data today.

Standard Chartered Bank regional head of research for Southeast Asia Tai Hui said commodity exports have been doing much of the heavy lifting in driving headline export growth since the fourth quarter of 2010, while there has been limited growth in manufactured exports.

With the correction in crude palm oil prices since February, commodities' contribution to headline export growth could also decline, hence our more conservative forecast."

He expects domestic demand to be "sufficiently robust" to sustain double-digit import growth.

Gundy Cahyadi, an economist with OCBC Bank, said the nominal value of electrical and electronic (E&E) exports has returned to pre-crisis level.

"This is very encouraging as a whole, but we don't think the kind of jump seen in March can continue indefinitely."

Cahyadi expects some correction in the commodity prices towards the month-end.

For the first quarter of this year, exports registered a growth of 3.7 per cent, mainly supported by the petroleum products and manufactured goods.

MIDF Research economist Anthony Dass, however, expects exports to grow on the back of firmer commodity prices namely crude palm oil and crude oil.

They will be complemented by the E&E segment, with the Book-to-Bill ratio reading at 0.98 in April from a low of 0.85 in January 2011.

"We expect imports to grow, driven by strong import demand for intermediate on the back of improving E&E sector and capital goods with the pick-up in domestic activities," he noted.