6/28/2005 The Corn & Soybean Digest - The future of soybean rust in theU.S. may be better understood by the Brazilian view of tomorrow.

Rust, say the experts, is here to stay. Asian soybean rust arrived on thewind and spread across 80% of Brazil's soybean growing area, oftendevastating yields. Taking a ride on freak El Nino currents, it caughtproducers off guard and unprepared. After seeing the effects ofuncontrolled fungus attacks on their fields, farmers in Brazil are ready.And that may have contributed - along with weather ó to less of a rustproblem this year.

But what about next year? The next five years? Brazil's federalagriculture research agency, Embrapa, says producers are in for a futureof coexistence with ó not eradication of ó rust, through a combination ofnew cultivars, preventive spraying and proactive control once the fungusis identified in a field.

At least one farmer in Mato Grosso takes a more optimistic view of thefuture. ìI believe rust can be beat,î says Jorge Borghetti, who farms5,000 acres of soybeans (and serves as the township's top agriculturalofficial) in one of the worst-hit parts of the state. ìI've been in thisbusiness for decades and I've seen so-called unbeatable problems basicallysolved, such as cyst nematode. The Mato Grosso Foundation, Embrapa andothers are researching it, and I have high hopes they'll come up with arust-resistant variety.î

His township, Primavera do Leste, was the hardest hit by rust in thestate, as this season's yields plummeted to less than 30 bu./acre, mostlydue to rust.

Skeptic or optimist, there is no doubt rust will remain high on Brazilianagriculture's priority list. Mato Grosso Governor Blairo Maggi, forexample, just announced he will seek a meeting of soybean-state governorsto develop a strategy against the problem. And Agriculture MinisterRoberto Rodrigues suggested the government might cut taxes on fungicidesin order to soften the blow for farmers.

Short Term

Outside the laboratory and off the farm, those may be the only practicalsteps that can be taken against the effects of rust. Developing newcompounds and coming up with genetic resistance take time. So in the shortterm, look for Brazilian farmers to deal with rust with some moredown-to-earth steps.

Over the next few growing seasons, rust combat will likely mean up to twopreventative fungicide applications and lots of field scouting. Manysoybean producers in Brazil already factor fungicide costs into theircoming-year planning, and some order early.

Early identification of rust in the field can mean a big difference, andwill likely continue to make that difference for a while. And even if (andwhen) tolerant or resistant varieties are introduced ó or that newrust-erasing active ingredient is found ó scouting and earlyidentification of rust may well remain a part of Brazil's farming future.

Long Term

The future starts today. In fact, work on making rust's future lessnoticeable in the world of soybean production began long ago. Africanresearchers have been on the case for years. And now researchers fromaround the world, including places like Japan, are working on the case.

Over the long run, some researchers put more faith in the development ofnew and better rust products, and others, like Borghetti, are betting ongenetics. Either way, tomorrow's solution begins in the lab.

Breeders at Brazil's Mato Grosso Foundation have been working away atdeveloping a ìstainless steelî variety of soybeans that would be resistantto rust. While the foundation's researchers are tight-lipped about thevarieties used to cross for rust resistance, we do know that despite earlyconfidence initial tests showed there was more work to do.

On the biotech side of the equation, Monsanto says it has already foundfour genes that could serve as rust inhibitors in soybeans. Inapproximately five to seven years, the company could introduce varietieswith tolerance or resistance.

Still, predicting the future of rust may be a bit like forecasting theweather. For one thing we just don't know enough about it. As oneresearcher said: ìRust is unpredictable.î We do know that so far effortsto develop tolerant or resistant varieties have not yet borne fruit, andthat the preventative and curative chemicals available are likely to helpprotect producers. However, once rust shows up, producers are virtuallyguaranteed to see losses.

In the end, Mato Grosso farmers' association official Rubens Denardi mayhave the right outlook. ìRust is an economic problem,î he says. ìAn addedcost that you must take into account, and that's the end of that.î

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