16/03/2011 (Commodity Online) - NCDEX April soyabean futures fell sharply due to weak overseas market as higher production estimates of Brazil amid favorable weather condition for crop. Higher production estimates of China’s soyabean coupled with inflationary concern may decline demand of global oilseeds. Higher production estimates of India’s Rabi oilseeds are also in favour of the bears.

USDA’s Monthly supply & demand Report: The US Department of Agriculture today revised 2010-11 global soyabean output estimate to 258.4 million tonnes, up by 2.3 million tonnes from its February estimate of 256.10 million tonnes. Brazil's soy crop output at a record 70.0 million tonnes n, up by 1.5 mln tn from the February estimate, due to timely rains in the producing regions of the country. It has raised output estimate for China as well. Argentina's soya output has been kept unchanged at 49.5 million tonnes. Estimate of soyabean carryover stock in the US was also kept unchanged at 3.82 million tonnes. The USDA raised global 2010-11 oilseeds production estimate by 2.4 million tonnes from the February projection to 444.2 million tonnes. Oilseeds carryover stocks are now seen at 58.33 million tonnes, marginally up from 58.21 mln tn in February. Soymeal output is seen at 178.64 million tonnes, up 1.09 million tonnes from February estimate. Exports are also seen higher at 60.32 million tonnes from 59.46 million tonnes a month ago. The agency pegged soyameal year-ending stocks at 6.42 million tonnes.

Mustard Seed

NCDEX April RM Seed futures fell sharply due to weakness in other oilseeds and edible oils. Higher production estimates of RM Seed this year as compared to last year further provided support to the bears. Rising fresh arrivals in major mandis also favored to the bears. Daily arrivals of RM seeds in Rajasthan were at 1 lakh bags and throughout India was around 1.50 lakh bags

Refined Soya oil

NCDEX April Refined soya oil futures fell sharply due to sharp decline in BMD CPO futures and huge losses were witnessed in soya oil futures at Chicago Board Of Trade, Malaysia’s palm oil export may decline due to earthquake and Tsunami in Japan destroyed port infrastructure. Better stock of Malaysian and Indonesia’s palm oil coupled with lower export figures of Malaysian palm oil are in favour of the bears.

Malaysian Palm Oil Exports:

As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), exports of Malaysian palm oil during the March 1-10 fell 17 percent as compared to the same period in the last month to 355,485 tonnes.

Outlook:

Oilseeds complex are expected to trade lower due to higher production estimates of soyabean in Brazil and China due to favorable weather condition for crop. Higher production estimates of domestic RM Seed this year as compared to last year may pressurize the prices.