04/01/2011 (Business Times) - MALAYSIA'S total trade has returned to pre-crisis levels, led by increased demand from regional markets like China.

The International Trade and Industry Ministry said total trade during the period of January to November 2010 has surpassed the RM1 trillion mark with a value of RM1.064 trillion, increasing by 19.4 per cent from the same period in 2009.

Exports in November expanded by 5.3 per cent to RM52.70 billion compared to a year ago while imports grew by 6.1 per cent to RM43.79 billion.

Malaysia had enjoyed trillion ringgit trade for three consecutive years (2006-2008) before the recent crisis.

According to Miti, the increase in exports was largely due to higher exports of palm oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refined petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, manufactures of metal, crude rubber as well as optical and scientific equipment.

Kenanga Investment Bank economist Wan Suhaimie Wan Saidi said November's trade performance was an indication of growth prospects for the first half of the year.

Exports in the fourth quarter of 2010 would be slower than the third quarter, leading to a slower GDP growth.

"At best, real GDP growth for the fourth quarter 2010 would be slightly higher than 4.0 per cent but we have estimated a growth of 3.6 per cent," he said, adding that GDP growth for the whole of 2010 is estimated at 6.8 per cent.

Exports would also face some strong headwinds going forward as it would be subjected to the slower external demand especially from Europe and the US, he added.

"The higher base effect may exacerbate the slower growth trend. However, exports of commodity namely crude oil and gas as well as palm oil and rubber may help to mitigate the slowdown of exports going forward."

Miti said exports to China increased by 14.2 per cent to RM7.19 billion from a year ago, on higher exports of palm oil, crude rubber, refined petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, LNG and rubber products.

Exports to Japan surged by 17.3 per cent while exports to the European Union (EU) registered an increase of 2.0 per cent due to higher exports of palm oil, crude rubber as well as chemicals and chemical products.

Exports to the US saw a decline of 16.9 per cent from a year ago, mainly due to lower exports of E&E products while exports to Hong Kong also saw a decline of 7.1 per cent from November 2009 due mainly to lower exports of E&E products.