22/07/2026 (New Straits Times), Kuala Lumpur - The Malaysia Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that crude palm oil prices are expected to trade between RM4,400 and RM4,650 per tonne in August.

It said that prices are likely to be supported by Indonesia's implementation of its B50 biodiesel mandate from July, firmer energy markets and improved biodiesel economics.

Malaysia's palm oil production rose 8.0 per cent month-on-month to 1.63 million tonnes in June 2026, driven by the seasonal production upswing that typically begins in March, while a decade-high oil extraction rate helped keep overall supply resilient despite weaker exports and softer global demand.

June output, however, remained 3.0 per cent lower than a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline, MPOC said in a statement.

Exports increased 6.1 per cent from May to 1.2 million tonnes but were still 4.0 per cent below June 2025, reflecting softer oils and fats consumption in key markets such as China and India amid the lingering impact of the Middle East conflict.

MPOC said Malaysia's palm oil supply outlook remains favourable, underpinned by stronger extraction efficiency rather than higher fruit production.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showed that production was broadly stable in the first half of 2026, while stocks increased to 2.5 million tonnes in June. The resilience in production was driven mainly by a higher oil extraction rate (OER).

"The higher OER was likely supported by favourable rainfall in 2025, which improved the oil content of FFB harvested this year. However, if El Nino develops in early 2027, drier conditions could weaken the OER," MPOC said.

Meanwhile, it reported that vegetable oil prices in Europe exhibited mixed trends in July. Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose 3.0 per cent and 6.0 per cent month-on-month, respectively, while sunflower oil and rapeseed oil fell by 1.0 per cent and 2.0 per cent.

Strong biodiesel demand in the United States and Indonesia continues to provide structural support for palm oil and soybean oil prices.

Globally, oilseed production is expected to expand in the 2026/27 season, although growth is slowing. Combined soybean, sunflowerseed and rapeseed output is forecast to rise by 16.5 million tonnes, below the average annual increase of 22.7 million tonnes over the past four years.

"Global reliance on soybean oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil has increased since 2019 amid tighter exportable palm oil supply from Southeast Asia," MPOC said.

It added that the slower pace of oilseed production growth, coupled with rising demand for vegetable oils, particularly from the biofuel sector, is expected to keep prices supported over the longer term.

In the near term, however, MPOC said demand remains subdued. Vegetable oil inventories in India remain elevated despite slower imports, suggesting weaker consumption amid inflationary pressures.

It said demand could improve ahead of the Diwali festive season, as India typically imports about 30 per cent of its annual vegetable oil requirements between July and September.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/economy/2026/07/1494478/mpoc-sees-cpo-prices-rm4400-rm4650-august