Malaysia's palm oil stocks seen to drop further to 2.24mil tonnes in April
12/04/2026 (New Straits Times), Kuala Lumpur - Malaysian palm oil stocks are projected to fall one per cent month-on-month (MoM) to 2.24 million tonnes in April, as exports and domestic consumption exceed production and imports, CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd said.
The firm said based on Amspec data, palm oil exports fell 30.7 per cent MoM to 402,916 tonnes in the first 10 days of April.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed energy prices significantly higher, with ICE gasoil jumping 71 per cent to US$1,246 per tonne and Brent crude climbing 33 per cent to US$96 per barrel after the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
"This, coupled with Indonesia's plan to implement B50 starting July 1 and the recently-announced higher US biofuel requirements, is bullish for edible oil demand.
"However, a key concern is the availability of feedstock to meet both food and biodiesel demand, given weather risks (62 per cent probability of an El Nino event between June-August 2026) and rising fertiliser prices," it said.
CIMB Securities said higher palm oil prices are expected to curb demand for food consumption.
"Our crude palm oil (CPO) price forecasts of RM4,400 per tonne for 2026 and RM4,500 per tonne for 2027 incorporate the impact of Indonesia's B50 mandate," it said.
In March, CIMB Securities said domestic palm oil inventories dropped 16 per cent MoM but surged 45 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 2.7 million tonnes.
The figure missed its forecast of 2.48 million tonnes due to stronger-than-expected exports, but came in above consensus estimates on the back of higher-than-anticipated production and imports.
The firm added that palm oil output reached 1.37 million tonnes in March, marking a 7.2 per cent MoM increase, driven by seasonal factors and a higher number of working days.
"However, output declined 0.8 per cent YoY, as Hari Raya holidays fell earlier in March. Exports surged 40.7 per cent MoM and 54.3 per cent YoY to 1.55 million tonnes in March, marking the highest March export level since March 2019," it said.
CIMB Securities attributed this to the increased competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil following Indonesia's higher export levies as well as stronger pre-festive demand.
"Palm oil imports declined 12.4 per cent MoM to 66,801 tonnes in March, while domestic disappearance fell 11 per cent MoM to 328,854 tonnes. As total exports and domestic disappearance exceeded production and imports, stockpiles declined," it added.