Palm Oil Prices Fall as Indonesia Seeks Zero-Tariff Deal with US
31/10/2025 (Jakarta Globe), Jakarta - Palm oil prices fell on Thursday as a stronger Malaysian ringgit and weak demand from major buyers dragged futures to their lowest level in nearly three months. The decline comes as Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, moves closer to securing a zero-tariff deal for its key commodity exports to the United States.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures dropped about 1.7 percent to below 4,250 ringgit ($899) per tonne on Thursday, marking the fourth straight session of losses. The contracts have fallen roughly 2.9 percent over the past month and are down 9.2 percent year-on-year, according to trading data from contracts for difference (CFDs) that track the global market.
CPO prices fell on a stronger ringgit, which makes the commodity more expensive for foreign buyers, and to declines in rival vegetable oils traded in Dalian and Chicago. Seasonal demand has also softened as winter approaches, typically leading to slower consumption in major importing countries such as India and China.
In Indonesia, palm oil output is expected to rise to about 56 million metric tons this year, according to data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), surpassing earlier estimates. Export performance, however, has weakened; shipments between Oct. 1 and Oct. 25 fell by roughly 0.3 to 0.4 percent from the previous month, according to cargo surveyors.
Despite the bearish sentiment, market losses were partially capped after US President Donald Trump voiced optimism about reaching a trade truce with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in their upcoming talks, raising hopes of improved global trade flows.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and US President Donald Trump have just signed a trade deal that saw the latter maintaining a 19 percent tariff rate on Kuala Lumpur. The pact stipulated zero tariffs on Malaysian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber -- all happen to also be Indonesia’s key exports to the US.
Indonesia’s chief negotiator Airlangga Hartarto revealed Wednesday evening that the trade talks with the Trump government would resume next month following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in South Korea. Getting tariff exemptions for the aforementioned commodities will be high up in the agenda.
“We have actually managed to finish almost every part of the agreement. However, we still have to do the legal drafting,” Airlangga told reporters in Jakarta.
The deal is expected to be completed by November 2025, following the APEC Summit.