Tighter Indonesian exports, higher Malaysian shipments to drive up CPO price
21/10/2025 (New Straits Times), Kuala Lumpur - The crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to rise this week, driven by concerns over Indonesia tightening exports and stronger outbound shipments from Malaysia, said Nomura Global Market Research.
The research house said it expects the average CPO price to rise to RM4,450 per tonne by Oct 23.
This comes after spot prices slipped two per cent to RM4,411 per tonne in the week ended Oct 16, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
The earlier decline was largely attributed to market worries about higher domestic inventory levels and weaker exports to India.
Following weak exports in June to August, Nomura said exports rose seven per cent month-on-month in September, with signs of continued improvement as shipments climbed 16.2 per cent in the first half of October.
This was largely supported by a surge in exports to China, up eightfold from a small base, while exports to Africa increased 55 per cent.
Exports to Asia Oceania rose 16 per cent, to the Middle East 10 per cent and to the Americas six per cent. In contrast, exports to India fell 70 per cent and decreased six per cent to Europe.
"We expect prices to rise due to concerns over Indonesia curbing exports and stronger exports from Malaysia," Nomura said in a note.
It cautioned, however, that the CPO price could soften to around RM4,350 per tonne if the other edible oil prices continue to fall.