Germany’s UFOP warns current rapeseed output ‘insufficient’ to meet demand
09/07/2024 (Fastmarkets) - Germany’s vegetable oil trade group UFOP warned that current global rapeseed production forecasts suggest there will not be enough of the oilseed available to meet demand and pushed for more planting in 2025 in a press release published on Thursday July 4.
The statement builds on forecasts from the International Grain Council (IGC); it recently announced that total rapeseed production is expected to reach 87.2 million tonnes, down by 1 million tonnes from the previous forecast and a 2% drop compared with the previous year.
Much of the reduction in the forecast was attributed to a smaller Australian crop projection, which was cut by 700,000 tonnes to 5.4 million tonnes, representing close to 78% of the entire global reduction.
IGC has forecast demand at 88.7 million tonnes, down by 0.5%, leaving a global shortfall of 1.5 million tonnes and putting pressure on end-of-year stocks.
“At 5.6 million tonnes, the amount of rapeseed in storage would be as much as around 21% smaller than it was the previous year and 1 million tonnes smaller than forecast last month,” UFOP warned in the press release.
Demand for rapeseed oil in biodiesel fuel and future hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production is supported by the discontinuation of the option of crediting palm oil-based biofuels toward greenhouse gas reduction obligations in Germany and other EU member states, including France and Sweden, the report said.
That teed up an opportunity for farmers to capitalize on expectations of higher prices for the oilseed, just when changing legislation would likely curb demand for rival soft oils.
Rapeseed is both a staple of cooking oil production and a mainstay of European biodiesel demand – its superior cold properties favor its use in the harsher European winter conditions, with Europe, Australia and Canada being among the biggest producers of the oilseed.
Despite Europe moving toward a future biofuel landscape that is less reliant upon both crop-based feedstocks in general and palm oil use specifically, mandates and targets in the decades ahead are likely to strain feedstock balances.
For sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) alone, Europe is tilting at achieving a 70% minimum SAF blend by 2050 – although the bloc will introduce a 2% minimum in 2025.