26.12.2023 (The Scottish Farmer) - Global grain markets faced pressure last week due to limited export news following a surge in US wheat sales the previous week and forecasted rains in Brazil.

However, according to AHDB a slight rise in Russian grain prices, concerns over Northern Hemisphere new crop plantings, and news of increased export taxes on wheat and maize in Argentina helped ease the downward pressure.

Similar to the UK, new crop plantings in Western Europe are worrisome due to unfavourable drilling conditions. France's Farm Ministry released the first sowing estimates for harvest 2024, forecasting a 5.1% decline in soft wheat area and a 4% decrease in winter barley area. Planting progression over the rest of winter remains a critical factor.

Argentina's new government, led by President Javier Milei, aims to raise export taxes on wheat and maize to 15%, up from the current 12%. However, the Argentine Rural Confederations flatly rejected these proposals.

Forecasts of rain in key maize growing regions of Brazil could alleviate concerns over dryness ahead of the Safrinha planting window in the new year. Brazil's maize production will be influenced by the planted acreage in the coming months, with purchases of seed and fertiliser for the 2023/24 Safrinha crop down 18-20% on the year.

In the UK, domestic wheat futures and delivered prices followed global movements down, impacting feed wheat and milling wheat premiums. Defra's final estimates for 2023 UK cereal and oilseed production indicated lower production figures for wheat, barley, and oats, potentially tightening the UK supply and demand balance.

Turning to oilseeds, global rapeseed supply remains ample, with markets closely monitoring wider oilseed and vegetable oil news. Forecasted rains in Brazil weigh on expectations of large Brazilian soybean supplies, while the weather in Brazil and the competitiveness of Argentinian soybeans remain key watchpoints.

Chicago soybean futures started the week supported by strong US exports and concerns over drought impact in Brazil. Despite falling later in the week due to forecasted rains, the May 24 contract rose $2.11/t, supported by a weakening US dollar. US soybean exports were robust, and there is speculation that China may continue purchasing US soybeans for delivery early next year.

As of December 9, 89.9% of Brazil's soybean crop had been planted, down 6 percentage points from last year, with some farmers replanting due to ongoing drought conditions. Argentina's export tax policies, coupled with the recent devaluation of the Argentine peso, may impact global soybean prices.

In the rapeseed focus, Paris rapeseed futures fell, influenced by Malaysian palm oil, while Chicago soybeans gained. UK delivered oilseed prices followed this trend, falling over the week. Agreste's estimates for winter planting in France forecast a 5% increase in rapeseed area compared to last year and a 17.3% rise over the 5-year average.

https://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/news/24004261.brazil-argentina-impacting-global-grain-markets/