PREVIEW-Malaysia’s end-November palm oil stocks seen falling on output decline, higher exports
04/12/2023 (Nasdaq), Jakarta - Malaysian palm oil inventories at the end of November were seen falling for the first month since April, as a seasonal output decline was expected to start while exports continued to rise, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.
Palm oil stocks were estimated at 2.44 million metric tons, down 0.48% from October, snapping six consecutive months of increases, according to the median estimate of ten traders and analysts polled by Reuters. MYPOMS-TPO
Meanwhile, crude palm oil (CPO) output at the world's second-largest producer was estimated at 1.81 million tons, a 6.64% drop from the previous month. MYPOMP-CPOTT
"From November, we shall witness seasonal drop in production both at Malaysia and Indonesia and next major rebound in production may come after Ramadan next year," said Aditya Jeripotula, global commodity research expert at Transgraph consulting, referring to the Islamic festive month which would take place from mid-March to mid-April.
Exports are likely to have risen by 4.05% to 1.53 million tons, the survey showed, the highest in 2023 so far. MYPOME-PO
"Malaysia exports in November were mainly driven by strong buying from Europe, which could be demand ahead of winter months. ... For Malaysia, November would be strongest exports this year," he said, adding that demand from India and China were seen mostly flat on monthly basis.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release its data on Dec. 12.
Breakdown of November estimates (in metric tons):
Range Median
Production 1,690,000-1,859,735 1,808,500
Exports 1,320,000-1,598,011 1,525,500
Imports 0-98,000 46,000
Closing stocks 2,310,000-2,588,000 2,437,053
* Official stocks of 2,448,852 tons in October plus the above estimated output and imports yield a total November supply of 4,303,352 tons. Based on the median of exports and closing stocks estimate, Malaysia's domestic consumption in November is estimated to be 340,800 tons.
Source: Reuters