Analysts mixed on crude palm oil output recovery amid Malaysia stockpile shortage; some say prices could ease
11/04/2023 (The Business Times) - ANALYSTS are mixed on their outlook for crude palm oil (CPO) production yield in Malaysia following a decline in inventory in March.
Malaysia’s stockpile fell to 1.67 million tonnes, which represented a 21.1 per cent month-on-month decrease, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board indicated.
This was caused by low production resulting from floods in key states such as Johor and Pahang, and higher exports as Indonesian players continued to face export restrictions imposed by the government, Maybank said in a report on Tuesday (Apr 11).
UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) expects production yields to improve now that the rains have subsided. A strong recovery, however, is unlikely due to prominent signs of tree stress, which could lead to lower productivity.
Production may also be hampered by the Hari Raya festival in April, noted RHB in a separate report. It also expects CPO stock levels to continue dropping in April.
Meanwhile, UOBKH believes inventory could drop below 1.5 million tonnes on lower production – despite weak exports. The research team is predicting lower exports in April as CPO loses its price competitiveness to vegetable oils in Europe, China and India.