22/11/05 BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina's "soy king", Gustavo Grobocopatel, predicted on Tuesday that grain production will take a dive this season despite expanded soybean area.
   "The weather is not so good. We would need more rains to ensure plentiful soil moisture reserves. This is a year in which yields will be lower," said Grobocopatel, general manager of Grupo Los Grobo, which grows soy, wheat, corn and sunflower seeds on 130,000 hectares in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
   In the 2004/05 growing season, blessed with good weather, the government says grain-and-oilseed output reached a record 84 million tonnes. But in 2005/06, "we will be closer to 75 million tonnes than to 80 million," Grobocopatel told foreign correspondents.
   That is because farmers are planting less corn, which has the greatest productivity per hectare, and because dry weather slashed wheat area as well. Dry soils in many areas are less than ideal for growing soybeans and corn.
   Grobocopatel, a jovial, high-tech farmer based in north-central Buenos Aires province, is one of Argentina's largest soybean producers. He said forecasts that Argentina's grain output soon will reach 100 million tonnes are overly optimistic.
   Grobocopatel, 44, explained that hefty export taxes cut deeply into corn and wheat profits, which pale alongside those of soy due to lower international prices. Plus, the area used as farmland would have to grow 15 percent to 20 percent and fertilizer use would have to rise.
   With no government incentive to spur these changes, and no real price incentive either, Argentina's grain-and-oilseed production could grow at a much slower rate than many expect, he said.
   "We could reach the 100 million tonnes in 20 years, in 10 years or in three years. It depends on prices and on the government," Grobocopatel said.
   Nationwide, farmers have begun harvesting the 2005/06 wheat crop, which the government expects to fall 4 million tonnes from last season to 12 million tonnes. They are still seeding soybeans, corn and sunseeds.