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Ukraine vegetable oil exports seen halted through June -Strategie Grains
Ukraine vegetable oil exports seen halted through June -Strategie Grains
04.04.2022 (www.nasdaq.com) - Adds detail, link to table
PARIS, April 4 (Reuters) - A virtual halt to Ukrainian vegetable oil production and exports due to war with Russia may continue until June before gradually resuming from July, adding to supply tensions in European oilseed markets, consultancy Strategie Grains said.
Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of cereals and oilseeds and account for about 80% of global exports of sunflower oil.
In its previous analysis Strategie Grains had made an initial assumption of a one-month halt to Ukrainian oilseed exports, but like other analysts now sees a prolonged disruption.
"Damage to industrial, logistics and port facilities is very significant in much of the east of the country," it said of Ukraine in a monthly oilseed report.
The consultancy reduced its forecast of European Union imports of sunflower oil, about 90% of which usually come from Ukraine, by nearly 800,000 tonnes to about 1.7 million tonnes for both 2021/22 and 2022/23.
For now, the EU market was adjusting by diverting more of its own sunflower supplies away from industries like biodiesel towards food markets, as well as by increasing the use of rapeseed and soybean oils, it said.
However, use of vegetable oils for food in the EU may have to be revised down later due to tight availability of crops, it added.
The consultancy reduced its forecast of EU stocks of rapeseed - the bloc's main oilseed crop - at the end of the 2021/22 season in June to 700,000 tonnes from 800,000 tonnes.
In livestock feed products, the consultancy lowered its projection of EU imports of sunflower meal from Ukraine this season by nearly 400,000 tonnes to 604,000 tonnes.
It had made a downward revision of 230,000 tonnes in its previous report.
For next season, it raised projected EU sunflower seed output by 400,000 tonnes to 10.2 million tonnes, anticipating an EU move to allow fallow land to be cultivated during the Ukraine crisis would boost plantings.
It kept its forecast of 2022/23 EU rapeseed production at 18.2 million tonnes, up about 7% on year.
TABLE-Strategie Grains estimates for EU oilseed crops
(Reporting by Gus Trompiz; editing by Jason Neely)
((gus.trompiz@thomsonreuters.com; +33 1 49 49 52 18; Reuters Messaging: gus.trompiz.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))