Combined exports of soybeans, oil and meal of the USA, Argentina andBrazil have increased substantially so far this season. A substantialboost in the net exports of soybeans and meal (meal basis) by 5.7 Mn T or23% from last year in Sept/Jan. At the same time, net exports of soybeansand oil (oil basis) increased steeply by almost 1.5 Mn T or 30%. DuringSept/Jan 2001/02, soybean exports of the USA, Argentina and Brazil wereboosted unexpectedly sharply to 21.0 Mn T, up by 4.5 Mn or 27% from lastyear. The European Union was the biggest destination, taking 8.0 Mn T inSept/Jan, up by 1.4 Mn T. Exports to China were boosted by 0.9 Mn T.Sizable increases also occurred to Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, severalother Asian countries, Mexico, Canada, North Africa, Turkey and CentralEurope. A very sharp increase also occurred in the G-3 exports of soybeanmeal to 11.9 Mn T in Oct/Jan 2001/02, up by 2.1 Mn T. Biggest increaseswere noted to the European Union, Central Europe and several othercountries.

Soya oil import requirements have increased substantially so far thisseason. Insufficient availabilities and high prices of sunflower oil andrape oil in many countries have shifted demand to soybean oil. Lateststatistics for the USA, Argentina and Brazil show a substantial increasein soya oil exports by 0.59 Mn T or 37% from a year ago during Oct/Jan2001/02. Argentine soya oil exports were higher than expected in recentmonths and up sharply from a year ago. As a result, Argentine soya oilstocks as of end- January fell to a 4-year low which is likely totranslate into relatively small soya oil exports in February. The keyexport destinations during Oct/Jan 2001/02 were again Iran and India, butsharp increases were also noted in exports to Turkey, Russia, severalAfrican countries as well as to the European Union and also to Mexico,some other Central American countries and China/ Hong Kong.

China soybean imports and crushings increased sharply in the past fewmonths. Part of the boost is linked to the shortfall in rapeseed crushingsand the correspondingly lower production of rape oil and meal. We estimatethat in August/Jan soybean crushings increased by 1.5 Mn T from a yearago. The boost in domestic production also stimulated soya meal exportsand, in fact, China became a net exporter of soybean meal. It has beenrumoured this week that the government is considering to grant soya mealexporters the full 13% VAT rebate contrary to the 8% currently provided.Exports of soybean meal exceeded expectations again in January at 113 ThdT. This brought cumulative exports in Oct/Jan to 325 Thd T, up steeplyfrom preceding years. Japan was the key destination taking 264 Thd T inOct/Jan. Exports were also made to South Korea, North Korea, Vietnam,Malaysia and the Philippines.Chinese imports of soybeans increased to 586 Thd T in January (against 383last year) and of rapeseed to 136 (vs. 93). The soybean import number wassmaller than expected basis the export shipments, but this underreportingis likely to be reflected in a very high import number for February ofaround 1.1 Mn T.

1 March, 2002 (OIL WORLD FLASH)