08/03/2002 (Business Times) - THE current dry spell in India is expectedto affect about half of the country's oilseed-growing areas and cause aharvest shortfall of at least 900,000 tonnes.And palm oil appears to have the best chance of making up for theshortage, said Dr Ahmad Ibrahim, Malaysian Palm Oil Promotion Council'smarket promotions director.But it will still depend on the price differential between soya and palmoil on the international market, especially when palm oil draws an Indianimport duty of 65 per cent and soyabean oil only 45 per cent.India's domestic oilseed crop for this planting season is under seriousthreat, Ahmad said."Much of its rich agricultural states are facing a drought-like situation,a kind of an El Nino effect. Cumulative Indian rainfall in the currentmonsoon season has been the lowest in six years,"he said in an articlewritten for Business Times.The total area planted with oilseeds in the country is expected to beslashed to 4.47 million hectares (ha) from 9 million ha last year, headded.The biggest drop in harvest among the seeds will be soyabean, the area inwhich it is grown has fallen to no more than 1.8 million ha, from 5.1million ha last year.Likewise, the area under groundnut has shrunk to 2.03 million ha from 2.79million ha."Assuming an average yield loss of 1 tonne per ha, the cutback would reach3.3 million tonnes for soyabeans and 700,000 tonnes for groundnuts,"Ahmadsaid."In terms of edible oils, this would result in a shortage of over 900,000tonnes.... kharif (planting season) normally caters for Deepavaliconsumption that falls in October/November."It is when per capita intake of oils and fats jumps to the year's high.How will India cope? Can we expect India to import 6 million tonnes ofedible oils this year?."India has been the biggest buyer of Malaysian palm oil for a number ofyears. It purchased 2.03 million tonnes last year.Meanwhile, crude palm oil futures traded lower on the Malaysia DerivativesExchange yesterday.August, September, October, and November deliveries all fell RM12each toclose at RM1,494, RM1,495, RM1,493 and RM1,495 a tonne, respectively.

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