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Medan, Tuesday, September 17, 2002 (Bloomberg) - Palm oil prices havesuffered their biggest drop in three months because the El Nino weatherpattern did less damage to plantations than expected in Malaysia andIndonesia, where four-fifths of the crop is grown, planters said.Indonesia may harvest about 8.6 million tonnes this year, higher than the8.3 million tonnes gathered in 2001, said Derom Bangun, chairman of theIndonesian Palm Oil Association. Drought earlier this year caused by ElNino had prompted predictions of a smaller harvest.“The forecasts were a bit too grim,” said Derom. “In the main oil palmplanting areas like north Sumatera, we weren’t really hit by drought.”Four-fifths of Indonesia’s crop comes from Sumatera.Palm oil for November delivery on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange fellRM41 a tonne, or 2.9%, to RM1,353, the biggest one-day decline for themost actively traded contract since June 10. Palm oil has dropped 12%since it touched a three-year high of RM1,529 on Aug 22.In the first eight months of this year, Malaysia’s palm oil outputdeclined 1.2% from a year ago to 7.5 million tonnes, according to theMalaysian Palm Oil Board. The government had forecast the 2002 crop woulddrop as much as 15% to 10 million tonnes.In August, production rose to a 10-month high of 1.01 million tonnes, 14%higher than a year ago, while the country’s inventories rose to theirhighest level in five months, the board said.The price of the edible oil had risen by as much as a third this year asfarmers and traders predicted reduced rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesiawould cause oil palm trees to yield fewer and smaller fruit.“It looks like it won’t be as bad as the previous one,” said Wong TeoSuan, director of Singapore’s meteorological services department. “Theforecast is it’s a weak to moderate El Nino.”And the increase in harvest estimates may cause palm oil prices to drop toas low as RM1,311 a tonne, said Jennifer Ooi, a trader at OSK Futures &Options Sdn Bhd.

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