CHICAGO (March 08 2003) : The USDA is expected to lower its 2002/03 USsoyabean crush and end stocks estimates, and raise its US soya exports andSouth American crop estimates in next week's supply and demand report,analysts said.

The US Agriculture Department will release its monthly data on Tuesday,March 11, at 7:30 am CST (1330 GMT).

The projections for the current marketing year, set to end on August 31,will likely be overshadowed by the historically market-moving annual USplantings and March 1 grain stocks data, due to be released on March 31.

Oilseed analysts expect only muted price reaction from Chicago Board ofTrade soya futures to Tuesday's report.

"Some are using a US export number for soyabeans at 1.020 (billionbushels), so in theory, assuming you lower the crush 15 million, thecarryout could be 100 million," said Steve Freed, analyst for ADM InvestorServices.

"However, I don't think USDA will be that aggressive in changing theirnumbers.

They'll probably be around 150 million in this report."

US soyabean exports have moved at a good clip this season, spurred by astrong Chinese buying programme.

Sales as of Thursday's weekly export sales report totalled 96 percent ofcommitments for the projected US 2002/03 soyabean exports of 940 millionbushels.

In its last monthly supply and demand report released on February 11, USDAreported the US 2002/03 soyabean ending stocks at 165 million bushels,below its previous estimate of 190 million, and well below the last twomarketing years' ending stocks that each totalled more than 200 millionbushels.

USDA in February estimated 2002/03 US soyabean crush at 1.655 billionbushels.

However, poor crush operating margins -- as high US soyabean pricesoutpaced what processors could command for their crushed product prices --have forced US processors to increasingly cut crush rates this winter.

Last week the US Census Bureau announced January 2003 US soyabean crushwas 142.69 million bushels, well below the December figure of 150.16million, and last year's 155.12 million bushels.

"We're cutting crush so I'm looking for them to reduce the domestic usageby 350,000 tons," said Dale Gustafson, an analyst with Salomon SmithBarney.

USDA in February estimated US 2002/03 soyameal domestic usage at 33.200million tons, down from its previous month's estimate of 33.350 million.

Gustafson also expected the USDA to cut its 2002/03 domestic soyabean oilusage figure by 100 million pounds, to cut its US 2002/03 soyaoilproduction by about 125 million pounds, and to possibly reduce ending USsoyaoil stocks by 25 million pounds.

In February's monthly report, the USDA estimated US 2002/03 soyaoilproduction at 18.785 billion pounds.

It lowered is domestic usage figure to 17.3 billion pounds from theprevious estimate of 17.450 billion, and raised its US 2002/03 soyaoilending stocks estimate to 1.710 billion pounds from the previous estimateof 1.460 billion pounds.

ARGENTINA CROP ESTIMATE BOOST EXPECTED: Most analysts expected the USDA toboost Argentina's 2002/03 soyabean crop production by 500,000 to 1 milliontonnes, from its estimate last month of a record crop of 33.5 milliontonnes.

"I don't think they'll change Brazil's number because they increased it alot in the February report," said Mark Weidner, analyst for CargillInvestor Services.

The USDA estimated in February that the Brazilian 2002/03 soyabean cropwould total 51 million tonnes.

Traders this week noted Brazil's harvest was gaining momentum, with theharvest in Brazil's largest soya producing state, Mato Grosso, estimatedat 20 percent complete, just ahead of last year's pace.

In Parana, Brazil's second-largest soya producing state, harvest was saidto be 15 percent complete, compared with last year's 8 percent.

Harvest of Argentina's projected record 33.5 million-tonne crop will alsosoon be under way, CBOT traders noted.-