HAMBURG (April 30 2003) : Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said 2002/03global soyabean crushings are likely to reach only 169.12 million tonnes,down 500,000 tonnes from its previous estimate on March 14.

"Reduced total US soyabean supplies have squeezed crush margins, withlower US domestic feed demand an additional negative factor," it said.

European Union soyabean crushing has also been reduced because untilrecently rapeseed was available as an alternative and feed producers haveincreased imports of South American soyameal.

"Now the most urgent question to answer will be whether the growth inSouth American crush in April/September 2003 be sufficient to offset thereduced US crush and the at best stagnating EU crush," the newslettersaid.

Oil World has increased its forecast of the world 2002/03 soyabean crop to194.17 million tonnes, up 1.55 million tonnes from its previous estimatein March because of increased South American production and up from 184.71million tonnes in 2001/02.

It now forecasts world 2002/03 season ending soyabean stocks on August 31at 42.25 million tonnes against 40.99 million tonnes at the end of lastseason.

"US stocks could fall so low as to disrupt supply flows locally in thecase of any delay in the new-crop harvest," the newsletter said.

"But Argentina/Brazil will offset lower US stocks".-Reuters