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Indonesia Aug Palm Oil Output Seen at 1-Year High, Exports Down - Reuters Survey
Indonesia Aug Palm Oil Output Seen at 1-Year High, Exports Down - Reuters Survey
* Indonesia's CPO output seen 3.198 million tonnes in August
* Output, stocks seen at highest in at least one year
* CPO exports seen down 2 percent m/m, lowest since March
22/09/2015 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output in August likely hit its highest in at least a year, up for a sixth month as maturing plantations entered their peak production period, while exports fell to their lowest since March, a Reuters survey showed.
A second consecutive monthly drop in overseas sales even as output continues to rise in the world's top producer could drag on benchmark palm prices, which have eased 6 percent this year and are currently near a two-week low of 2,088 ringgit ($490.83) per tonne.
"It's the peak period and in Indonesia you have more immature plantations coming into maturity with every year, which helps production," said Rabobank analyst Pawan Kumar. "September is around where it will peak."
CPO output in August rose to 3.198 million tonnes from 2.856 million tonnes in July, according to the median estimate of a survey of three Indonesian industry officials and plantation companies. The survey pegged exports at 1.885 million tonnes.
Although September output may again be high, haze from smouldering forest fires may hinder harvesting, Kumar said.
Indonesia will take 30 days to bring the fires under control, the national disaster management said last week.
According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at 3.392 million tonnes in August, the highest in at least a year and up from 3.2 million in July.
Domestic inventories could climb further next month if a decision by India, the world's top buyer of cooking oils, to raise import taxes on crude and refined edible oils takes a toll on Indonesian palm exports, analysts said.
Indonesia's consumption of the tropical oil was estimated at between 550,000 and 900,000 tonnes.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) publishes monthly data provided by a professional surveyor, which last showed August exports at 2.1 million tonnes.
The Reuters survey includes contributions from GAPKI, GIMNI and PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm companies.
Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results and GAPKI palm and palm kernel oils export data for 2014/15 (forecasts in million tonnes).
Month Output Exports Inventories GAPKI export data
August 3.198 1.885 3.392 2.10
July 2.856 1.920 3.200 2.09
June 2.800 2.400 3.046 2.27
May 2.774 2.150 2.540 2.22
April 2.662 2.046 2.602 2.25
March 2.397 1.800 2.667 2.03
February 2.049 1.750 2.425 1.79
January 2.056 1.658 2.413 1.81
----------------------------------------------------
December 2.165 1.837 2.325 1.97
November 2.306 2.100 2.225 2.26
October 2.385 1.820 2.378 2.47
September 2.675 1.750 2.500 1.70
August 2.750 1.720 2.575 1.72
($1 = 4.2540 ringgit)
* Output, stocks seen at highest in at least one year
* CPO exports seen down 2 percent m/m, lowest since March
22/09/2015 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output in August likely hit its highest in at least a year, up for a sixth month as maturing plantations entered their peak production period, while exports fell to their lowest since March, a Reuters survey showed.
A second consecutive monthly drop in overseas sales even as output continues to rise in the world's top producer could drag on benchmark palm prices, which have eased 6 percent this year and are currently near a two-week low of 2,088 ringgit ($490.83) per tonne.
"It's the peak period and in Indonesia you have more immature plantations coming into maturity with every year, which helps production," said Rabobank analyst Pawan Kumar. "September is around where it will peak."
CPO output in August rose to 3.198 million tonnes from 2.856 million tonnes in July, according to the median estimate of a survey of three Indonesian industry officials and plantation companies. The survey pegged exports at 1.885 million tonnes.
Although September output may again be high, haze from smouldering forest fires may hinder harvesting, Kumar said.
Indonesia will take 30 days to bring the fires under control, the national disaster management said last week.
According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at 3.392 million tonnes in August, the highest in at least a year and up from 3.2 million in July.
Domestic inventories could climb further next month if a decision by India, the world's top buyer of cooking oils, to raise import taxes on crude and refined edible oils takes a toll on Indonesian palm exports, analysts said.
Indonesia's consumption of the tropical oil was estimated at between 550,000 and 900,000 tonnes.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) publishes monthly data provided by a professional surveyor, which last showed August exports at 2.1 million tonnes.
The Reuters survey includes contributions from GAPKI, GIMNI and PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, one of the largest listed palm companies.
Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results and GAPKI palm and palm kernel oils export data for 2014/15 (forecasts in million tonnes).
Month Output Exports Inventories GAPKI export data
August 3.198 1.885 3.392 2.10
July 2.856 1.920 3.200 2.09
June 2.800 2.400 3.046 2.27
May 2.774 2.150 2.540 2.22
April 2.662 2.046 2.602 2.25
March 2.397 1.800 2.667 2.03
February 2.049 1.750 2.425 1.79
January 2.056 1.658 2.413 1.81
----------------------------------------------------
December 2.165 1.837 2.325 1.97
November 2.306 2.100 2.225 2.26
October 2.385 1.820 2.378 2.47
September 2.675 1.750 2.500 1.70
August 2.750 1.720 2.575 1.72
($1 = 4.2540 ringgit)