6/15/2004 (Agra Europe) - EU rapeseed prices are likely to come underpressure in the coming weeks as growers in the bloc's top producers lookforward to harvesting what could be a bumper 2004 crop, according toindustry experts.

"The outlook for the new crop hasn't really changed over the last coupleof weeks. It's still looking very good," said oilseed analyst Josh Dadd ofthe UK's Home-Grown Cereals Association.

"But it's worth saying that right up until harvest, much can change withthe weather. We saw that this (past) season, when crops in France andGermany were in good order initially, only to be adversely affected byconditions pre-harvest," he added.

In Paris, nearby rapeseed futures trading at more than 300 [euro] pertonne are worth 60 [euro] more than new crop positions mainly because oftight EU supply caused in part by last year's heatwave and a brisk demandfor oilseed products that have not been genetically modified.

But the arrival of an Australian cargo in Hamburg, with another due soon,has helped ease some of the tension in the spot market recently, analystssaid, and new crop prices could be further undermined by falls in key USsoyabean and Winnipeg canola futures.

"The market will follow Winnipeg lower in the short-term as the cropprospects in the EU look excellent," analyst A2Z said in its weeklyreport.

Plants growing well

Rapeseed plants are now growing well in top growers France, Germany andPoland, crop experts said, and although the UK is encountering someproblems, a record harvest this summer is likely.

German oilseed analyst Oil World is particularly optimistic. "The outlookis at the moment very positive," Oil World editor Thomas Mielke said."Development is overall very good with very little winter damage, I thinkproduction will reach out estimates."

Oil World is forecasting an old EU-15 crop of 10.45 million tonnes in 2004compared to 9.48mt last year, with Germany and France each producing arespective 4.4mt and 3.5mt against 3.6mt and 3.3mt in 2003.

UK yields uncertain

Driven by a sharp increase in plantings, UK output will likely exceed lastyear's 1.8mt record, but yields are difficult to forecast due to poorplanting conditions, a cold spring and a higher than usual level of birddamage, according to industry specialists.

"Following the wet and windy conditions of late, our team has seen somecrops going flat or kinking at flowering. This is bound to have an effecton yield," said Barry Barker of UK seed supplier Dalgety Arable.

UK growers have also been warned to be prepared for harvest delays, withsome areas of the crop being much later than others.

Meanwhile, a larger area and good weather conditions should see Poland'sharvest on track for a 1.1mt crop, up from 800 000t last year, the PolishInstitute of Agricultural Economics said.