MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Fearless Growth Forecast for New Bangsamoro Region
Fearless Growth Forecast for New Bangsamoro Region
17/11/2014 (BusinessWorld Online Edition) - A plan to develop the envisioned Bangsamoro entity could spur economic growth in the area by as much as 8% in its transition phase, placing the region on a par with other Mindanao regions, a socioeconomic planning official said last week.
“By the end of 2016, by which time the Bangsamoro political entity shall have been put in place, the economy is to grow between 6% to 8% with industry and services sector contributing to a good portion of this goal,” Ma. Lourdes D. Lim, Davao regional director of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), said in her presentation at the 52nd annual meeting of the Philippine Economic Society on Friday in Makati City.
The growth target, if achieved, would be a turnaround from the 3.6% gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of the present Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in 2013, 1.1% in 2012 and the 2.7% average rate from 2009 to 2013.
Broken down, the industry sector is targeted to grow 60%-62% this year until 2016 from the 5.5% average from 2009 to 2013. Agriculture is expected to grow 3%-4% from 1.5% from 2009 to 2013 and services to 5%-7% from 4.8%.
GRDP per capita, Ms. Lim said, is targeted to increase to P38,000 to P40,000 from the P29,608 recorded last year. “Poverty incidence is also set to be reduced by as much as 5% while employment is seen to further increase to around 96% in 2016,” Ms. Lim said.
Poverty incidence in ARMM settled at 55.8% in 2012, compared to the national average of 25.2%. Employment rate, on the other hand, stood at 95.4% last year against a national average of 93.3%.
Ms. Lim said the growth targets for the envisioned political entity is part of the Bangsamoro Development Plan (BDP), “a blueprint for the development of the Bangsamoro into a just, peaceful and prosperous society.”
The plan would require at least P225.7 billion this year until 2016, with a funding shortfall of around P109 billion.
Growth and investment drivers for the Bangsamoro, Ms. Lim said, would include agriculture, mining, renewable energy, the halal industry, Islamic banking and finance, and palm oil production.
“Already, there are investors interested in these areas,” Ms. Lim said. “The creation of the Bangsamoro will likely increase economic output, employment, and investments... with one study projecting Bangsamoro’s contribution to increase gross domestic output by 0.3 percentage points in the near to the medium term.”
As security conditions normalize, economic activity could resume, Ms. Lim said, leading to trade among Bangsamoro provinces, nearby regions and the rest of the world.
“We see investing in Bangsamoro as a key to developing the rest of Mindanao. The future Bangsamoro is as important as any of our advanced regions in the country. We hope to see its contribution.”
The draft Bangsamoro Basic Law is currently being deliberated in Congress before its ratification in a plebiscite scheduled early next year. A Bangsamoro Transition Authority will then be created, replacing the ARMM, to pave the way for the election of a new administration in time with the 2016 general elections.
“By the end of 2016, by which time the Bangsamoro political entity shall have been put in place, the economy is to grow between 6% to 8% with industry and services sector contributing to a good portion of this goal,” Ma. Lourdes D. Lim, Davao regional director of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), said in her presentation at the 52nd annual meeting of the Philippine Economic Society on Friday in Makati City.
The growth target, if achieved, would be a turnaround from the 3.6% gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of the present Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in 2013, 1.1% in 2012 and the 2.7% average rate from 2009 to 2013.
Broken down, the industry sector is targeted to grow 60%-62% this year until 2016 from the 5.5% average from 2009 to 2013. Agriculture is expected to grow 3%-4% from 1.5% from 2009 to 2013 and services to 5%-7% from 4.8%.
GRDP per capita, Ms. Lim said, is targeted to increase to P38,000 to P40,000 from the P29,608 recorded last year. “Poverty incidence is also set to be reduced by as much as 5% while employment is seen to further increase to around 96% in 2016,” Ms. Lim said.
Poverty incidence in ARMM settled at 55.8% in 2012, compared to the national average of 25.2%. Employment rate, on the other hand, stood at 95.4% last year against a national average of 93.3%.
Ms. Lim said the growth targets for the envisioned political entity is part of the Bangsamoro Development Plan (BDP), “a blueprint for the development of the Bangsamoro into a just, peaceful and prosperous society.”
The plan would require at least P225.7 billion this year until 2016, with a funding shortfall of around P109 billion.
Growth and investment drivers for the Bangsamoro, Ms. Lim said, would include agriculture, mining, renewable energy, the halal industry, Islamic banking and finance, and palm oil production.
“Already, there are investors interested in these areas,” Ms. Lim said. “The creation of the Bangsamoro will likely increase economic output, employment, and investments... with one study projecting Bangsamoro’s contribution to increase gross domestic output by 0.3 percentage points in the near to the medium term.”
As security conditions normalize, economic activity could resume, Ms. Lim said, leading to trade among Bangsamoro provinces, nearby regions and the rest of the world.
“We see investing in Bangsamoro as a key to developing the rest of Mindanao. The future Bangsamoro is as important as any of our advanced regions in the country. We hope to see its contribution.”
The draft Bangsamoro Basic Law is currently being deliberated in Congress before its ratification in a plebiscite scheduled early next year. A Bangsamoro Transition Authority will then be created, replacing the ARMM, to pave the way for the election of a new administration in time with the 2016 general elections.