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MARKET DEVELOPMENT
US Cash Grain Outlook: Soy Prices Still Sliding
calendar05-08-2004 | linkDow Jones | Share This Post:

CENTRAL CITY, Neb. (Dow Jones)--U.S. farmers awoke to find local elevatorsbidding even lower prices for their soybeans Wednesday, as a 5 1/2-centdeterioration in average basis more than offset a 1-cent gain in Novfutures registered at the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday.Although the continued disintegration of soybean prices may havegrowers mystified, consultant Rich Balvanz, with Ag Management Services ofMarion, Iowa, said a big-picture view of the market shows, "There are noweather problems that are hurting the crop currently. The forecast, atworst, poses some temporary stress. So unless things really deteriorate inthe way that they did last year, we are on our way to very good corn andsoybean yields. This being the case, it is unlikely that new crop lowshave been made, particularly in soybeans."Brokerage firm FCStone currently forecasts the 2004-05 U.S. corn cropat 10.938 billion bushels and the U.S. soybean crop at 2.982 billionbushels.U.S. grain futures were mixed at the Chicago Board of Trade overnight,with gains of 2 1/2 cents in Sep soft red winter wheat, 3/4 cent in Sepcorn and 1/4 cent in Sep oats, offset by a 3-cent decline in Nov soybeans.

"Nobody is bullish in Chicago, but the sentiment is noticeablydifferent this week," said Farm Progress market analyst Arlan Suderman. "Alull is developing ahead of USDA's Aug. 12 crop report. Traders believethat the bad news is already factored into prices, allowing the market toconsolidate."The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday that the nations grainelevators and terminals are currently filled to 32% of capacity, unchangedfrom the previous week. Visible supplies of cash corn held by grainterminals and elevators across the U.S. decreased by about 16% during thepast week, although commercial stockpiles of soybeans and wheat rose byabout 1% and 4% respectively.National cash grain indexes maintained by the Minneapolis GrainExchange presently place U.S. elevator prices at approximate averages of:$2.10 on corn, $5.69 for soybeans, $3.09 1/2 for hard winter wheat, $2.961/2 for SRW wheat, $3.24 1/2 for spring wheat, $3.13 1/2 on soft whitewheat and $3.76 for durum.

U.S. CROP WEATHER

Thunderstorms stretched from the eastern Great Lakes to southwesternOklahoma Wednesday, after doing damage to crops in the northern Plains andupper Midwest with large hail and winds of 60 to 90 miles an hour Tuesday.Global Weather Services said rain will impact much of the MidwestWednesday, although precipitation will be limited in the Plains, Delta andPacific Northwest for the next few days.Hurricane Alex affected the coastline of North Carolina Tuesday buthad little impact elsewhere.