NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)--India edible oil prices are expected to inch upover the next month because of supply disruptions amid a truckers'strike and later-than-usual harvesting of the oilseeds crop."Right now the truckers' strike has not led to sharp rise in edibleoilprices, but if the strike prolongs for more than a week, it could lead toprice increases in consuming centers," said Atul Chaturvedi, vicepresident of Adani Exports, one of India's biggest trading houses.Chaturvedi said the strike by truckers has led to imported edible oilconsignments being stuck at ports, but added there are enough inventorieswith most traders to tide over the next few days.Traditionally, the country depends more on imported edible oils duringAugust and September as edible oil from the new crop only starts coming inby September.Any disruption in the supply chain therefore, is a concern in duringthis period.India annually imports around 5 million tons edible oils, of which 74%is palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia.India's truck operators started a strike Saturday, protesting the levyof a new service tax on them. Initial talks between transporters and thegovernment haven't been successful.Earlier this week, truck operators said they are prepared to stay offthe roads until the government meets their demands.Groundnut oil prices were quoted around 47,800 rupees a metric ton($1=INR46.34) Wednesday, compared with INR47,600/ton last month. Soyoilclosed at INR46,800/ton Wednesday, compared with INR45,800/ton a monthago.

OILSEEDS YIELD MAY BE HIT BY POOR MONSOONS

Chaturvedi said scanty monsoon rains in July forced many farmers tosow the oilseeds crop late in July, which will delay the harvest thisyear.India oilseeds crops, including groundnut, soybean and sunflower, aresown in June and July, while harvesting normally takes place in September.However, while a part of the oilseeds crop this year will be harvestedas per schedule in September, many farmers will harvest later as theircrop was sown late."Late sowing could be a factor that may delay the arrival of freshdomestic edible oil supplies into the market."Since oilseeds are grown by low income farmers in small plots of land,the crop depends completely on monsoon rains for its survival with noaccess to irrigation water.This year, rains in the first 20 days of July were scanty, leading toconcerns of a drop in yield. But rains since July 20 have eased thoseconcerns to a large extent."I think the groundnut and soybean crops are shaping up well. Butthere is a concern about the yield of both these crops being affected bythe scanty July rains," said Chaturvedi.He added that production of both these crops may fall below lastyear's levels, though only marginally.India produced a record 25 million tons of oilseeds in the lastfinancial year ended March 31.

EDIBLE OIL IMPORTS MAY RISE THIS YEAR

While the government has set this year's oilseeds productiontarget at 26 million tons, industry associations are pegging output around21 million-22 million tons."The actual output, as always, will be between government and industryestimates. But I think it's highly unlikely production will touchlast year levels," said Chaturvedi.He said edible oil imports may rise in the next oil marketing yearbeginning Oct. 1, 2004 because of lower domestic output, but the finalimport volume will depend on the winter-sown oilseeds crop."If the rabi (winter sown) mustard seed crop is a bumper (crop), itcould reduce the volume of imports," said Chaturvedi.The winter sown oilseeds crop is planted in November and December andharvested in March.Imports from November 2003 to July 2004 totaled 2.7 million tons,compared with 3.9 million tons in the same period of the last oilmarketing year.