MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Climbs to 17-Month High as Dry Weather Supports
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Climbs to 17-Month High as Dry Weather Supports
06/03/2014 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 17-month high on Wednesday, supported by expectations that the dry weather will hurt Southeast Asian production and as key analysts gave bullish price outlooks at an industry gathering.
The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 1.1 percent at 2,832 ringgit ($860) per tonne. Earlier prices touched 2,868 ringgit, the highest level since Sept. 20, 2012.
"The immediate concern about weather conditions may take prices higher," a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage said. "Weather is still an important factor for the time being and if it persists for the next two or three weeks, then the market will continue rising.
Concerns over dry weather tightening palm supplies in dominant Southeast Asian producers Indonesia and Malaysia have helped palm prices gain almost 7 percent this year.
Recent price rises may be a little overdone, the trader added, before prices partially gave up some of their earlier gains. Many traders had eyed price and market outlooks from key industry speakers at the conference in Kuala Lumpur.
Palm oil prices are expected to rise to 2,900 ringgit per tonne by the end of October on strong demand for blending from Indonesia's biofuel sector, leading analyst Dorab Mistry told conference delegates.
Demand for biofuel has also supported prices in recent sessions, although the world's top palm producer will likely miss targets for blending palm oil-based biodiesel in 2014, a senior official said earlier.
Palm oil futures could be capped at 3,000 ringgit per tonne by the middle of this year, James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International said, as a recent rally in prices prompts buyers to switch to rival edible oils.
In comparative vegetable oils, the U.S. soyoil contract for May was little changed in early Asian trade, while the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also rose 1.8 percent.
In technicals, Malaysian palm oil may edge up to a resistance at 2,883 ringgit per tonne and peak around this level, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Total traded volume on Wednesday stood at 31,221 lots of 25 tonnes, slightly lower than the average of 35,000 lots.
In other markets, Brent crude oil futures fell for the second straight session, dropping below $109 a barrel on an easing of fears that Russia's incursion into Ukraine could lead to war.
Higher crude oil prices would increase demand for palm oil as an alternative feedstock to produce biofuels.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1016 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAR4 2830 +40.00 2790 2840 209
MY PALM OIL APR4 2831 +32.00 2823 2868 494
MY PALM OIL MAY4 2832 +31.00 2825 2868 18902
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6254 +98.00 6176 6260 207412
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 6998 +124.00 6932 7000 191774
CBOT SOY OIL MAY4 43.67 -0.04 43.45 43.93 8538
NYMEX CRUDE APR4 103.09 -0.24 103.05 103.53 13260
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.2750 Malaysian ringgit)
($1 = 6.1430 Chinese yuan)
The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 1.1 percent at 2,832 ringgit ($860) per tonne. Earlier prices touched 2,868 ringgit, the highest level since Sept. 20, 2012.
"The immediate concern about weather conditions may take prices higher," a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage said. "Weather is still an important factor for the time being and if it persists for the next two or three weeks, then the market will continue rising.
Concerns over dry weather tightening palm supplies in dominant Southeast Asian producers Indonesia and Malaysia have helped palm prices gain almost 7 percent this year.
Recent price rises may be a little overdone, the trader added, before prices partially gave up some of their earlier gains. Many traders had eyed price and market outlooks from key industry speakers at the conference in Kuala Lumpur.
Palm oil prices are expected to rise to 2,900 ringgit per tonne by the end of October on strong demand for blending from Indonesia's biofuel sector, leading analyst Dorab Mistry told conference delegates.
Demand for biofuel has also supported prices in recent sessions, although the world's top palm producer will likely miss targets for blending palm oil-based biodiesel in 2014, a senior official said earlier.
Palm oil futures could be capped at 3,000 ringgit per tonne by the middle of this year, James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International said, as a recent rally in prices prompts buyers to switch to rival edible oils.
In comparative vegetable oils, the U.S. soyoil contract for May was little changed in early Asian trade, while the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also rose 1.8 percent.
In technicals, Malaysian palm oil may edge up to a resistance at 2,883 ringgit per tonne and peak around this level, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Total traded volume on Wednesday stood at 31,221 lots of 25 tonnes, slightly lower than the average of 35,000 lots.
In other markets, Brent crude oil futures fell for the second straight session, dropping below $109 a barrel on an easing of fears that Russia's incursion into Ukraine could lead to war.
Higher crude oil prices would increase demand for palm oil as an alternative feedstock to produce biofuels.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1016 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAR4 2830 +40.00 2790 2840 209
MY PALM OIL APR4 2831 +32.00 2823 2868 494
MY PALM OIL MAY4 2832 +31.00 2825 2868 18902
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6254 +98.00 6176 6260 207412
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 6998 +124.00 6932 7000 191774
CBOT SOY OIL MAY4 43.67 -0.04 43.45 43.93 8538
NYMEX CRUDE APR4 103.09 -0.24 103.05 103.53 13260
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.2750 Malaysian ringgit)
($1 = 6.1430 Chinese yuan)