MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Ends up To 2-Wk High on Philippine Typhoon Fears
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Ends up To 2-Wk High on Philippine Typhoon Fears
14/11/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a near two-week high on Wednesday on prospects that a deadly typhoon in the Philippines would damage crops and halt exports of competing coconut oil, channelling demand to palm oil-based alternatives.
The super typhoon Haiyan that wreaked havoc in central Philippines - one of the world's top coconut oil producers - could severely deplete coconut oil supply in the region as the country struggles to cope with rescue and relief efforts.
Coconut oil traded as much as $240 up from Monday and about $90 up during the day, pushing up other competing vegetable oils, on concerns of the damage the typhoon has already inflicted to trees.
Crude palm kernel oil PKO-MYSTH-M1 prices rose to 3,802.96 ringgit by Wednesday's midday break, up from 3,356,32 ringgit in the previous session, and from 3,191.18 ringgit on early Tuesday.
"The weather-driven market is supporting not only palm oil, but the other vegetable oils as well," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
"The situation in the Philippines has affected coconut oil supply, which pushed palm kernel oil up more than 150 ringgit per tonne," said the Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had climbed as high as 2,627 ringgit per tonne, the highest level since Nov.1 in late trade, before settling at 2,602 ringgit ($811) per tonne by Wednesday's close, a 0.1 percent rise.
Total traded volume stood at 38,273 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the 35,000 lots.
Technicals were a little bearish. Malaysian palm oil is biased to revisit its Tuesday low of 2,506 ringgit per tonne, as its correction from the Nov. 1 high of 2,632 ringgit does not seem to be complete, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao
The shortage of coconut oil supply could hike crude palm kernel oil prices as buyers look for substitutes, analysts say, as both coconut oil and the palm product can be used as raw materials in the oleochemicals industry and to produce soap and cosmetics.
"Crude palm oil prices may increase up to 2,800 ringgit by year-end if the supply damage turns out to be a full blown crisis, and assuming 25 percent of Philippine coconut oil supply is damaged," said Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim.
He added that Malaysian planters such as TSH Resources, Genting Plantations, and IJM Plantations would see a positive earnings impact if buyers switch to the crude palm oil.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December rose 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 1.0 percent.
In other markets, Oil rose above $106 a barrel on Wednesday as support from supply outages countered concern about the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve soon reducing its monetary stimulus and forecasts of a rise in U.S. stockpiles.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1007 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV3 2590 +1.00 2590 2625 93
MY PALM OIL DEC3 2604 +7.00 2565 2623 1522
MY PALM OIL JAN4 2602 +3.00 2565 2627 22675
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6314 +132.00 6260 6326 951168
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 7222 +74.00 7192 7236 750210
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 40.84 +0.09 40.63 40.95 5907
NYMEX CRUDE DEC3 93.16 +0.12 92.93 93.43 17116
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.21 Malaysian ringgit)
The super typhoon Haiyan that wreaked havoc in central Philippines - one of the world's top coconut oil producers - could severely deplete coconut oil supply in the region as the country struggles to cope with rescue and relief efforts.
Coconut oil traded as much as $240 up from Monday and about $90 up during the day, pushing up other competing vegetable oils, on concerns of the damage the typhoon has already inflicted to trees.
Crude palm kernel oil PKO-MYSTH-M1 prices rose to 3,802.96 ringgit by Wednesday's midday break, up from 3,356,32 ringgit in the previous session, and from 3,191.18 ringgit on early Tuesday.
"The weather-driven market is supporting not only palm oil, but the other vegetable oils as well," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
"The situation in the Philippines has affected coconut oil supply, which pushed palm kernel oil up more than 150 ringgit per tonne," said the Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had climbed as high as 2,627 ringgit per tonne, the highest level since Nov.1 in late trade, before settling at 2,602 ringgit ($811) per tonne by Wednesday's close, a 0.1 percent rise.
Total traded volume stood at 38,273 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the 35,000 lots.
Technicals were a little bearish. Malaysian palm oil is biased to revisit its Tuesday low of 2,506 ringgit per tonne, as its correction from the Nov. 1 high of 2,632 ringgit does not seem to be complete, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao
The shortage of coconut oil supply could hike crude palm kernel oil prices as buyers look for substitutes, analysts say, as both coconut oil and the palm product can be used as raw materials in the oleochemicals industry and to produce soap and cosmetics.
"Crude palm oil prices may increase up to 2,800 ringgit by year-end if the supply damage turns out to be a full blown crisis, and assuming 25 percent of Philippine coconut oil supply is damaged," said Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim.
He added that Malaysian planters such as TSH Resources, Genting Plantations, and IJM Plantations would see a positive earnings impact if buyers switch to the crude palm oil.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December rose 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 1.0 percent.
In other markets, Oil rose above $106 a barrel on Wednesday as support from supply outages countered concern about the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve soon reducing its monetary stimulus and forecasts of a rise in U.S. stockpiles.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1007 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV3 2590 +1.00 2590 2625 93
MY PALM OIL DEC3 2604 +7.00 2565 2623 1522
MY PALM OIL JAN4 2602 +3.00 2565 2627 22675
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 6314 +132.00 6260 6326 951168
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 7222 +74.00 7192 7236 750210
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 40.84 +0.09 40.63 40.95 5907
NYMEX CRUDE DEC3 93.16 +0.12 92.93 93.43 17116
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.21 Malaysian ringgit)