MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Ends Higher on Firmer Ringgit, Lower Stocks
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Ends Higher on Firmer Ringgit, Lower Stocks
07/08/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Tuesday as the ringgit currency firmed against the U.S. dollar and as higher export demand cut into stocks.
The ringgit gained against the greenback, prompting plantation firms to stay in the crude palm oil futures market as they profit from any Malaysian currency appreciation when they sell the feedstock to refiners.
Palm oil futures could recoup a 7.9 percent loss made so far this year as exports rose last month, signalling there may be a further decline in stocks when the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) issues July industry data on Aug. 14.
"The market is slowing down and people are taking it easy for the four-day weekend. The next lot of data will only come next week and much of it has been priced in," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.3 percent to 2,246 ringgit ($692) per tonne by Tuesday's close.
Total traded volume stood at 16,219 lots of 25 tonnes each, below the average 35,000 lots. This stemmed from investors buying to exit short positions instead of purchases from fresh cash.
The market will be closed from the afternoon session of Aug. 7 and will re-open on Aug. 12. Markets in Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, are closed this week.
Technicals were bearish. Reuters analyst Wang Tao said Malaysian palm oil futures is expected to drop to a support at 2,221 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will lead to a further loss to 2,190 ringgit.
Fundamentals were more mixed.
A Reuters poll issued ahead of MPOB data showed stocks in Malaysia, the second largest producer, could fall to 1.6 million tonnes in July - below a two-year low of 1.65 million tonnes hit in June.
Forecasts of crop friendly weather across the U.S. Midwesthave fanned expectations of bumper crops in agriculture markets, including soybeans, which are tracked by Malaysian palm oil prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release updated production data on Aug 12.
A record soybean crop could replenish historically low soy supplies and yield more soyoil, narrowing the edible oil's global premium to palm oil and grabbing demand.
The U.S. soyoil contract for December edged down 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange was unchanged.
In other markets, Brent crude climbed above $109 a barrel as tension rose in the Middle East and oil stockpiles in top consumer the United States were expected to fall.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1009 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL AUG3 0 +0.00 0 0 0
MY PALM OIL SEP3 2277 +9.00 2261 2285 795
MY PALM OIL OCT3 2246 +6.00 2231 2256 9764
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN4 5422 -32.00 5418 5468 273202
CHINA SOYOIL JAN4 7008 +0.00 7004 7038 487410
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 43.17 -0.04 43.03 43.31 4329
NYMEX CRUDE SEP3 107.04 +0.48 105.97 107.16 25644
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.248 Malaysian ringgit)
The ringgit gained against the greenback, prompting plantation firms to stay in the crude palm oil futures market as they profit from any Malaysian currency appreciation when they sell the feedstock to refiners.
Palm oil futures could recoup a 7.9 percent loss made so far this year as exports rose last month, signalling there may be a further decline in stocks when the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) issues July industry data on Aug. 14.
"The market is slowing down and people are taking it easy for the four-day weekend. The next lot of data will only come next week and much of it has been priced in," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.3 percent to 2,246 ringgit ($692) per tonne by Tuesday's close.
Total traded volume stood at 16,219 lots of 25 tonnes each, below the average 35,000 lots. This stemmed from investors buying to exit short positions instead of purchases from fresh cash.
The market will be closed from the afternoon session of Aug. 7 and will re-open on Aug. 12. Markets in Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, are closed this week.
Technicals were bearish. Reuters analyst Wang Tao said Malaysian palm oil futures is expected to drop to a support at 2,221 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will lead to a further loss to 2,190 ringgit.
Fundamentals were more mixed.
A Reuters poll issued ahead of MPOB data showed stocks in Malaysia, the second largest producer, could fall to 1.6 million tonnes in July - below a two-year low of 1.65 million tonnes hit in June.
Forecasts of crop friendly weather across the U.S. Midwesthave fanned expectations of bumper crops in agriculture markets, including soybeans, which are tracked by Malaysian palm oil prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release updated production data on Aug 12.
A record soybean crop could replenish historically low soy supplies and yield more soyoil, narrowing the edible oil's global premium to palm oil and grabbing demand.
The U.S. soyoil contract for December edged down 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange was unchanged.
In other markets, Brent crude climbed above $109 a barrel as tension rose in the Middle East and oil stockpiles in top consumer the United States were expected to fall.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1009 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL AUG3 0 +0.00 0 0 0
MY PALM OIL SEP3 2277 +9.00 2261 2285 795
MY PALM OIL OCT3 2246 +6.00 2231 2256 9764
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN4 5422 -32.00 5418 5468 273202
CHINA SOYOIL JAN4 7008 +0.00 7004 7038 487410
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 43.17 -0.04 43.03 43.31 4329
NYMEX CRUDE SEP3 107.04 +0.48 105.97 107.16 25644
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.248 Malaysian ringgit)