MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Rises, Traders Expect Inventories to Shrink Again
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Rises, Traders Expect Inventories to Shrink Again
05/07/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched higher on Thursday, spurred by early gains in China's soy markets and investor optimism for stocks in the world's No.2 producer to shrink for a sixth straight month.
But prices stayed in a tight range between 2,366 ringgit and 2,384 ringgit as investors avoided risky bets ahead of an official stocks report to be released next Wednesday by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
Palm oil inventories at the end of June are likely to have dropped to a year-low of 1.74 million tonnes, a Reuters poll showed, as demand continued to outstrip supply.
"The market today is moving higher on the back of friendly Dalian soybean oil pricing. Palm has been down for some time, so it's adjusting," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.2 percent to close at 2,370 ringgit ($745) per tonne.
"The market is rangebound - we're waiting for the MPOB report next week. People expect a further stock drawdown," the trader said, adding prices may rebound to 2,400 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 26,046 lots of 25 tonnes each, below the average 35,000 lots.
Technicals showed palm oil was expected to test a strong resistance at 2,391 ringgit, only a break above which could lead to a further gain to 2,408 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Despite stronger exports buoyed by demand for the Muslim festival month of Ramadan in July, palm has been weighed down by laggard economic conditions in top two buyers China and India, coupled with a bearish outlook on production. Prices fell 3.9 percent in the first half of 2013.
Output of the tropical oil in June is seen rising 6 percent, the Reuters poll showed, suggesting the start of a higher production cycle that typically begins in the second half.
"Rising production of palm oil in the second half of the year has dampened price gains. Crude palm oil prices are likely to come under pressure in the coming months," Phillips Futures investment head Say Hwa said in a note.
In other markets, Brent oil slipped on Thursday from a two-week high above $106 a barrel after Egypt's armed forces toppled its president, easing concerns over the threat of supply disruption in the Middle East.
In vegetable oil markets, the most-active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 0.4 percent in the morning session, but was flat at close. The U.S. soyoil markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1004 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL JUL3 0 +0.00 0 2370 0
MY PALM OIL AUG3 2376 +8.00 2370 2386 2869
MY PALM OIL SEP3 2370 +5.00 2366 2384 12917
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN4 5928 +34.00 5902 5962 448638
CHINA SOYOIL JAN4 7346 +0.00 7326 7386 637956
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 45.99 +0.00 0.00 0.00 0
NYMEX CRUDE AUG3 100.82 -0.42 100.71 101.49 12027
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.183 ringgit)
But prices stayed in a tight range between 2,366 ringgit and 2,384 ringgit as investors avoided risky bets ahead of an official stocks report to be released next Wednesday by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
Palm oil inventories at the end of June are likely to have dropped to a year-low of 1.74 million tonnes, a Reuters poll showed, as demand continued to outstrip supply.
"The market today is moving higher on the back of friendly Dalian soybean oil pricing. Palm has been down for some time, so it's adjusting," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.2 percent to close at 2,370 ringgit ($745) per tonne.
"The market is rangebound - we're waiting for the MPOB report next week. People expect a further stock drawdown," the trader said, adding prices may rebound to 2,400 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 26,046 lots of 25 tonnes each, below the average 35,000 lots.
Technicals showed palm oil was expected to test a strong resistance at 2,391 ringgit, only a break above which could lead to a further gain to 2,408 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Despite stronger exports buoyed by demand for the Muslim festival month of Ramadan in July, palm has been weighed down by laggard economic conditions in top two buyers China and India, coupled with a bearish outlook on production. Prices fell 3.9 percent in the first half of 2013.
Output of the tropical oil in June is seen rising 6 percent, the Reuters poll showed, suggesting the start of a higher production cycle that typically begins in the second half.
"Rising production of palm oil in the second half of the year has dampened price gains. Crude palm oil prices are likely to come under pressure in the coming months," Phillips Futures investment head Say Hwa said in a note.
In other markets, Brent oil slipped on Thursday from a two-week high above $106 a barrel after Egypt's armed forces toppled its president, easing concerns over the threat of supply disruption in the Middle East.
In vegetable oil markets, the most-active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 0.4 percent in the morning session, but was flat at close. The U.S. soyoil markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1004 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL JUL3 0 +0.00 0 2370 0
MY PALM OIL AUG3 2376 +8.00 2370 2386 2869
MY PALM OIL SEP3 2370 +5.00 2366 2384 12917
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN4 5928 +34.00 5902 5962 448638
CHINA SOYOIL JAN4 7346 +0.00 7326 7386 637956
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 45.99 +0.00 0.00 0.00 0
NYMEX CRUDE AUG3 100.82 -0.42 100.71 101.49 12027
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.183 ringgit)