VEGOILS-Palm Inches Up Ahead of Industry Forum
04/02/2013 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Monday, tracking external markets and snapping eight straight sessions of losses while investors keep an eye on an industry conference for more clues on the vegetable oil's outlook.
Palm prices fell more than six percent last week, notching the biggest weekly loss since mid-November as soy markets in China and the United States suffered from predictions of potential bumper South American soybean crops.
Traders are also watching Bursa Malaysia's annual palm oil conference which kicks off on Monday, and will focus on price outlooks and industry clues from leading analysts including Dorab Mistry and James Fry.
"The market is up today on external factors, but prices are rangebound because the market is trying to push up while there is also a bit of covering," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
"A lot of people will be watching the market during the palm oil conference. They are more cautious. Trading volumes should be slightly lesser," he added.
By the midday break, the benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 1.2 percent to 2,397 ringgit ($771) per tonne. Prices traded in a tight range of 2,375 - 2,400 ringgit.
Total traded volume stood at 13,735 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 12,500 lots.
Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil is expected to test a support at 2,361 ringgit per tonne, with a good chance of breaking this level and falling to 2,306 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
China's palm oil stocks most probably rose to a record 1.4 million tonnes in February as imports surged late last year ahead of stricter quality regulations from Jan. 1, a Reuters survey of five Chinese traders and analysts showed.
Dismal palm oil export data also triggered investor worries that a 4.5 percent export tax hike on crude palm oil beginning March could stifle demand for Malaysian palm oil products and keep stockpiles high.
Investors are pinning hopes that seasonally slowing output and a wide $300 discount to competing soyoil would shift demand to Malaysian palm, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market, but say exports need to pick up faster to run down the current 2.58 million tonne stockpile.
In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged up 0.3 percent in early Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange inched up 1 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0520 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAR3 2383 +33.00 2370 2383 48
MY PALM OIL APR3 2389 +29.00 2367 2389 510
MY PALM OIL MAY3 2397 +29.00 2375 2400 6703
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP3 6650 +42.00 6596 6666 381300
CHINA SOYOIL SEP3 8328 +78.00 8266 8344 450248
CBOT SOY OIL MAY3 49.82 +0.15 49.48 49.89 2765
NYMEX CRUDE APR3 90.54 -0.14 90.33 90.89 7994
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.1095 ringgit)