VEGOILS-Palm Oil Drops to 3-Week Low, Stockpile Concerns Linger
06/11/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled to their lowest in more than three weeks on Monday, as traders continued to worry over large stockpiles in the world's No.2 producer of the tropical oil.
Traders and analysts expected inventories in Malaysia to reach a fresh record high in October on strong production. Weakness in other vegetable oil markets also weighed on palm oil prices.
"The market's dragged down by soybean oil and soybeans, and local sentiment is also not good," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
"The question for oilseeds, especially palm oil, is basically Malaysia's end-stocks figures for October. Exports may be good, but end-stocks are not coming down. The question is how much, and we are looking at 2.5 million or 2.6 million tonnes."
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 3.4 percent to close at 2,411 ringgit ($788) per tonne. Prices earlier fell to an intraday low at 2,381 ringgit, weakest since Oct. 12.
Total traded volumes stood at 44,480 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots, as traders rushed to liquidate their positions.
Concerns remained that strong exports of 1.6 million tonnes in October would do little to counter healthy production that may swell stockpiles.
Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) releases data on October inventory levels on Nov. 12.
"We expect the upcoming MPOB data to be uninspiring, as inventory is poised to increase further, to another record high of 2.65 million tonnes," Alan Lim Seong Chun, a research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a note on Monday.
"However, the high inventory should have already been reflected in the very high discount of crude palm oil against soybean oil, at more than $250 per tonne."
The steep discount between palm and soybean oil could trigger higher purchases from India, the world's biggest vegetable oil importer, and top analyst Dorab Mistry called for the country to impose an import duty of 10 percent on crude palm oil to protect its farmers.
In related markets, Brent prices slipped to around $105 a barrel on Monday, weighed down by a strong dollar and demand destruction after Superstorm Sandy, while investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery slipped 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 3 percent lower.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1004 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL NOV2 2300 -70.00 2298 2300 107
MY PALM OIL DEC2 2352 -75.00 2316 2384 3513
MY PALM OIL JAN3 2411 -85.00 2381 2447 24037
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY3 6784 -218.00 6764 6920 507862
CHINA SOYOIL MAY3 8694 -268.00 8656 8840 924432
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 48.80 -0.46 48.45 49.22 13004
NYMEX CRUDE DEC2 84.59 -0.27 84.34 85.23 25964
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.06 ringgit)