VEGOILS-Palm Oil Tumbles to New 2-Year Low as Stocks Swell
02/10/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled to the lowest in more than two years on Monday as investors fretted over rising stocks that may outpace slowing demand and the uncertain global economic outlook.
A cargo surveyor reported a dip in Malaysia's September exports from a month ago, which could lead to further build up in stocks on high production and weigh on prices that have fallen by more than a fifth since the start of 2012.
"We are in September and October -- the peak of the production cycle for the year -- so producers are willing to sell at lower prices," said Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank.
"We have one more month to go in terms of high production. After that prices should be able to pick up."
The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 3.2 percent to close at 2,464 ringgit per tonne. It earlier tumbled as much as 3.8 percent to 2,449 ringgit ($800) per tonne -- the lowest since July 2010.
Total traded volumes on Monday were at 42,523 lots per 25 tonnes each, almost double the usual 25,000 lots as traders hedged positions and booked profits in the wake of a bearish technical outlook.
Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said technicals showed a break below 2,493 ringgit will lead to a further loss at 2,407 ringgit.
"There is position squaring and continued speculative selling combined with seasonal production pressure which lingers in the market," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage.
"Any attempt to rally will be capped by selling pressure at key chart resistance areas," he added.
Palm oil's demand-supply fundamentals looked weak.
Palm oil exports in September were weaker-than-expected, slipping 0.7 percent to 1,443,836 tonnes compared to 1,453,544 tonnes in August, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Monday.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance said exports inched up 0.5 percent to 1,433,795 tonnes compared with 1,427,052 tonnes shipped during August -- a drop from its previous month-on-month 19.6 percent surge.
Malaysia has been pushing out more crude palm oil shipments to curtail the rise in stocks that have hit a ten month high at 2.1 million tonnes. Industry analyst Dorab Mistry expects stocks to hit 3 million tonnes next year.
Brent crude fell below $112 per barrel on Monday, reflecting investor concerns a shaky global economy may hurt oil demand following fresh evidence of weakness in China and Japan as well as persistent worries about the debt-saddled euro zone.
U.S. soyoil for December delivery eased 1.5 percent, giving up some of last session's gains even though the U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed a smaller-than-expected drop in ending stocks.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange was closed for the Golden Week holiday in China and will resume trading on Oct. 8.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1009 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL OCT2 2290 -130.00 2290 2350 118
MY PALM OIL NOV2 2392 -69.00 2383 2486 2957
MY PALM OIL DEC2 2464 -82.00 2449 2560 25192
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 7186 +10.00 7172 7244 220106
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 9278 +6.00 9250 9328 305268
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 51.85 -0.81 51.72 52.65 7669
NYMEX CRUDE NOV2 91.98 -0.21 91.26 92.18 18931
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.0633 ringgit)