VEGOILS-Palm Oil Climbs To 6-Week Peak on Edible Oil Supply Woes
28/08/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose to a 6-week high on Monday, as traders continued to bet on tight global edible oil supplies with no sign of the drought easing in the soy-producing U.S. Midwest.
U.S. new-crop soybeans hit a contract high on Monday after farm newsletter Pro Farmer estimated U.S. soybean production would be worse than forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A smaller supply of soybeans to be crushed into soybean oil had widened palm oil's discount to soybean oil to above $250 per tonne, shifting more demand to the cheaper tropical oil.
"There's a lot more upside for crude palm oil prices because so far palm oil has been lagging behind soybean oil," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.
"The second thing is that there could be new stimulus measures coming out from China and the U.S. that could boost sentiment."
The benchmark November 2012 contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to close at 3,091 ringgit ($994) per tonne after touching an intraday high at 3,122 ringgit, a level last seen since July 17.
Total traded volumes stood at 25,999 lots of 25 tonnes each, just slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Palm oil will consolidate further in the range of 3,044-3,097 ringgit per tonne before climbing up towards 3,183 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Demand appears to be picking up with Malaysia's exports rising 5.7 percent for the Aug 1-25 period from a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Saturday.
Traders will be watching for further indications on export trends as another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, releases its Aug 1-20 data together with Aug 1-25 data later in the day.
Refiners in Malaysia's top oil palm growing state of Sabah will pay millers less for edible oil from next month to preserve margins and better compete with Indonesia, the Business Times reported on Monday, in a move likely to hit planters' revenues.
Planters are also concerned by a possible return of El Nino to South East Asia as the hot and dry weather pattern can deal serious damage to palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Oil futures rose more than a dollar on Monday, with Brent climbing above $115 per barrel, on supply worries as Tropical Storm Isaac threatened to interrupt most U.S. offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.
Other vegetable oil markets also traded higher on an oilseed supply squeeze due to the U.S. dry weather.
By 1005 GMT, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for December delivery gained 1 percent and the most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.4 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1005 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL SEP2 3032 +2.00 3032 3070 662
MY PALM OIL OCT2 3068 +17.00 3065 3098 3292
MY PALM OIL NOV2 3091 +22.00 3087 3122 16953
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 8284 +110.00 8240 8338 383742
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 10130 +142.00 10076 10156 495306
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 57.46 +0.56 57.07 57.85 8017
NYMEX CRUDE OCT2 97.14 +0.99 96.45 97.72 25004
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.11 ringgit)