VEGOILS-Palm Oil Off 1-Mth High, U.S. Weather in Focus
24/08/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged off a one-month high on Thursday, as traders turned cautious over demand prospects, with the worst drought in the U.S. Midwest in 56 years pushing oilseed prices higher.
Palm oil futures have been riding on the back of weather-fuelled gains in the soybean oil market after a long weekend holiday and strong export demand, but traders said the price rally might not be sustainable.
"The market looks a little toppish. The current high prices will certainly hurt demand," said a trader with a domestic commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
"We are also entering the peak palm oil production months of September and October, which could cap any major rallies."
The benchmark November 2012 contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.6 percent to close at 3,061 ringgit ($990) per tonne. Prices had earlier hit a high of 3,100 ringgit, a level last seen on July 17.
Total traded volumes soared to 43,207 lots of 25 tonnes each after the midday break, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.Technicals appear to be supportive. Palm oil will rise to 3,183 ringgit per tonne as it has broken above a resistance at 3,044 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Demand for the edible oil has been resilient, with Malaysia's palm oil exports rising 6 percent for the Aug 1-20 period from a month ago on higher shipments to China and India, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Wednesday.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance will release Aug 1-20 data, together with Aug 1-25 data, on Monday.
The worst drought in the United States in more than half a century that damaged soybean crop prospects remained in focus as a smaller supply of soybean oil could shift more demand to the cheaper palm oil.
Planters are also concerned by weather woes closer to Southeast Asia, where a possible return of El Nino by the end of the year could hurt oil palm yields for major producers Indonesia and Malaysia.
Oil prices rose on Thursday to top $116 a barrel on renewed hopes for a third round of monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve despite weak economic data from China.
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for December delivery lost 0.3 percent by 1002 GMT. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange ended up 0.2 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1002 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL SEP2 3017 +9.00 3010 3059 351
MY PALM OIL OCT2 3041 -7.00 3029 3069 8483
MY PALM OIL NOV2 3061 -17.00 3052 3100 20426
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 8084 +94.00 8022 8150 312612
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 9952 +16.00 9938 10036 436926
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 56.66 -0.17 56.55 57.05 10239
NYMEX CRUDE OCT2 98.03 +0.77 97.17 98.29 23078
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.09 ringgit)