27/07/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil fell to its lowest in more than five weeks on Thursday, as investors turned more bearish on forecasts for rain in parts of the U.S. Midwest that could bring some relief to the drought-hit soy crop.

A larger supply of soybeans to be crushed into vegetable oil could narrow spreads between soybean oil and palm oil and draw demand away from the tropical oil.

Market players also priced in weaker Malaysian exports for the July 1-25 period after cargo surveyors reported declines from a month ago, reinforcing views that stock levels could climb after falling to a 14-month low in June.

"There is not enough push to go up after some profit bookings yesterday, so the market is down again today," said a Singapore-based trader with a foreign commodities brokerage. "It looks like the trend is still bearish." 

Benchmark October palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 2.3 percent to close at 2,882 ringgit ($909) per tonne. Prices earlier touched 2,880 ringgit, the lowest level since June 18.

Traded volume picked up after the midday break to 27,567 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.   

Technicals were bearish, as palm oil is biased to fall to 2,838 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said, based on a wave pattern and retracement analysis.

Malaysia's palm oil exports continued to show weakness from a month ago, falling 14.3 percent and 18.6 percent, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. 

Slowing exports coupled with better production expected in Malaysia could boost palm oil stock levels, taking some pressure off tightening global oilseed supplies.

Market players are also looking out for a return of the El Nino weather pattern to Southeast Asia as the hot and dry weather could hurt palm oil output from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, providing upside for palm oil prices.    

Oil prices dropped below $104 a barrel on Thursday, squeezed by a stronger dollar as disappointing corporate earnings contributed to a gloomy outlook for demand growth.

Other vegetable oil markets similarly suffered declines on U.S. wet weather forecasts.

By 1001 GMT, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for December delivery was down 1.3 percent. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was almost flat.   

  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1011 GMT

  Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
  MY PALM OIL      AUG2    2872   -54.00    2872    2920     487
  MY PALM OIL      SEP2    2869   -71.00    2869    2935    2475
  MY PALM OIL      OCT2    2882   -69.00    2880    2947   16128
  CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3    7694    +4.00    7634    7718  190932
  CHINA SOYOIL     JAN3    9348    +4.00    9324    9398  378738
  CBOT SOY OIL     DEC2   52.39    -0.60   52.28   53.10    7756

  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
  ($1=3.172 Malaysian ringgit)