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MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Ends Almost Flat, Global Uncertainty Weighs
calendar11-06-2012 | linkReuters | Share This Post:

11/06/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended almost flat on Friday, as a firm  demand outlook for the edible oil was offset by fears of  slowing global growth that could crimp commodity demand.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to a congressional committee offered little clue on any monetary stimulus policy, overshadowing initial positive market reaction to a Chinese interest cut.

Palm oil had a volatile trading week on macroeconomic concerns triggered by the ongoing European debt crisis, and ended the week down 1.1 percent.

"Market sentiment is still uncertain, and the palm market is tracking external factors, such as what happened in Europe and China," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Although there was a rate cut in China, Bernanke's testimony didn't mention QE3, and that has created a lot of uncertainty," he added, referring to market expectations for a third round of quantitative easing.

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost one ringgit to close at 2,973 ringgit ($934) per tonne. Prices touched a low of 2,925 ringgit on Monday, their lowest since Nov. 2, 2011.

Traded volumes stood at 31,567 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil will be neutral in a range of 2,925-3,038 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Palm oil prices are expected to be supported by healthy demand for the tropical oil as Muslims prepare to observe a month of fasting starting in mid-July.

Traders will be looking for clues to demand trends as cargo surveyors release June 1-10 export data on Monday.

Market players were also betting on lower palm oil stocks, which probably fell to a 13-month low in May, as overseas demand and domestic consumption outweighed production, a Reuters  survey showed on Wednesday.

Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue official stocks and output data, also on Monday.  

The market has shifted its focus to external macroeconomic uncertainty that could hurt palm oil demand. The tropical oil may fall to 2,450 ringgit per tonne, said leading analyst James Fry on Friday.

Palm oil could fall to 2,700-2,800 ringgit with the euro debt crisis clouding economic outlook and crimping commodity demand, top oils analyst Dorab Mistry said.

Brent crude prices fell below $99 on Friday, hurt by the U.S. stimulus uncertainty.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July  delivery lost 1.5 percent in Asian trade while the most active Jan 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian commodity exchange ended almost flat.

  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT

  Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
  MY PALM OIL      JUN2    2925   -29.00    2920    2930     119
  MY PALM OIL      JUL2    2973    -7.00    2931    2991    1825
  MY PALM OIL      AUG2    2973    -1.00    2922    2988   19887
  CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3    7758   -54.00    7702    7840  237008
  CHINA SOYOIL     JAN3    9200    -2.00    9148    9248  543220
  CBOT SOY OIL     JUL2   49.62    -0.78   49.30   50.34   16352
  NYMEX CRUDE      JUL2   82.70    -2.12   82.00   83.99   41486

  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
  ($1=3.183 Malaysian ringgit)