VEGOILS-Palm Falls To 9-Week Low on Demand Concerns
12/05/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a 9-week low on Friday before ending more than 2 percent lower as political uncertainty in the euro zone and weak industrial production data in China weighed on the demand outlook for the edible oil.
China's industrial production in April grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years, which along with poor trade numbers on Thursday, suggest the world's No. 2 economy continues to slow down after a weak first-quarter performance.
A gloomy global economic outlook, together with slowing exports in Malaysia indicated by cargo surveyor data, sent palm oil futures down 2.5 percent this week.
"First, refining margins are negative and demand is anaemic," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
"The macro uncertainty over in Europe also weighed on the market plus technical indicators are bearish after having failed repeatedly to break key resistance levels."
Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 2.2 percent to close at 3,275 ringgit ($1,067) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a low of 3,265 ringgit, the weakest since March 8. Traded volumes stood at 30,413 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Exports for the first 10 days of May fell 6 percent and 14.2 percent from a month ago, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively.
Lower demand from major food buyers China and India contributed to the fall in shipments, while the slowing global economic growth is also a concern.
But a low global stocks of oilseeds, suggesting a tightening supply of the raw materials for competing edible oils, remains a bullish factor for palm oil.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast record exports next season for soybeans, shrinking U.S. stocks to the lowest in four years.
On the local front, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, also reported April stock levels at a one-year low.
Malaysia's April palm oil stock level fell 5.4 percent to 1.85 million tonnes from a month ago, which some analysts said was at the lower range of the consensus' expectation.
"It was 3 percent below our estimate of 1.9 million tonnes as the tree stress effect had caused a deeper production drop than expected," Alan Lim, an analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a research report.
"On the overall, the sustained drop in the stocks level below 2 million tonnes is positive for CPO prices," he said, referring to crude palm oil.
Oil fell to under $112 a barrel on Friday following a weak reading of industrial growth in China.
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for July and the most active Dalian soyoil September contract traded 1.5 percent lower.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1012 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAY2 3290 -65.00 3290 3295 15
MY PALM OIL JUN2 3283 -77.00 3272 3334 2022
MY PALM OIL JUL2 3275 -74.00 3265 3330 18831
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP2 8438 -170.00 8432 8648 262726
CHINA SOYOIL SEP2 9566 -146.00 9558 9760 546946
CBOT SOY OIL JUL2 52.68 -0.82 52.50 53.58 13792
NYMEX CRUDE JUN2 96.15 -0.94 95.74 96.61 25196
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.07 ringgit)