VEGOILS-Palm Oil Falls in Thin Trade But Exports Add Support
01/05/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday as slower U.S. growth raised fears of a weaker global economic outlook, although losses were limited by strong export numbers and tight global oilseed supply.
U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter, dampening investor sentiment, but also raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may start another round of monetary easing.
Malaysian palm oil exports jumped close to 10 percent from a month earlier, but it was not enough to lift futures.
"The market is range-bound trading between 3,450 and 3,500 ringgit. Although exports were up, the market didn't pick up on that as some traders didn't want to take a long position ahead of the holiday tomorrow," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.0 percent to close at 3,471 ringgit ($1,148) per tonne. Traded volumes were thin at 21,351 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.
Malaysian palm oil exports for April improved by 9.4 percent and 10.4 percent from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively.
Traders said strong demand from major food buyers China and India as well as the biodiesel industry in Europe remained the main reasons behind the recovery in exports.
The market also sees tight global oilseed supply as a bullish factor for palm oil. Together with a lower soybean output, analysts said that lower palm oil production would help support prices.
"A severe structural slowdown in palm oil output is under way. The downtrend will worsen over coming seasons and is one the market can no longer afford to ignore," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon in a research note.
"We recommend shorting the September 2012 BMD crude palm oil futures at the current price of 3,450 ringgit with a target of 3,250 ringgit. From third-quarter 2012, we recommend looking for any reversal in prices to the upside with a target of 3,700 ringgit."
On the technical front, a bearish target for palm oil at 3,439 ringgit remains unchanged as indicated by its wave pattern, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Oil prices held steady above $119 per barrel on Monday as the prospect of a third round of liquidity stimulus by the United States and a weaker dollar supported commodities.
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for May inched down 0.4 percent. China's Dalian market was closed for a holiday and reopens on Wednesday.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1007 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL MAY2 3472 -14.00 3472 3498 522
MY PALM OIL JUN2 3474 -35.00 3474 3513 3281
MY PALM OIL JUL2 3471 -34.00 3464 3505 12306
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP2 8774 +16.00 8760 8798 99450
CHINA SOYOIL SEP2 9946 +10.00 9928 9968 288440
CBOT SOY OIL JUL2 55.36 -0.17 55.30 55.66 6693
NYMEX CRUDE JUN2 104.28 -0.65 104.22 105.04 11786
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1 = 3.025 ringgit)