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MARKET DEVELOPMENT
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Falls in Thin Trade But Exports Add Support
calendar01-05-2012 | linkReuters | Share This Post:

01/05/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday as slower U.S. growth raised fears of a weaker global economic outlook, although losses were limited by strong export numbers and tight global oilseed supply.

U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter, dampening investor sentiment, but also raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may start another round of monetary easing.

Malaysian palm oil exports jumped close to 10 percent from a month earlier, but it was not enough to lift futures.

"The market is range-bound trading between 3,450 and 3,500 ringgit. Although exports were up, the market didn't pick up on that as some traders didn't want to take a long position ahead of the holiday tomorrow," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.0 percent to close at 3,471 ringgit ($1,148) per tonne. Traded volumes were thin at 21,351 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots. 

Malaysian palm oil exports for April improved by 9.4 percent and 10.4 percent from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively.

Traders said strong demand from major food buyers China and India as well as the biodiesel industry in Europe remained the main reasons behind the recovery in exports.

The market also sees tight global oilseed supply as a bullish factor for palm oil. Together with a lower soybean output, analysts said that lower palm oil production would help support prices.

"A severe structural slowdown in palm oil output is under way. The downtrend will worsen over coming seasons and is one the market can no longer afford to ignore," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon in a research note.

"We recommend shorting the September 2012 BMD crude palm oil futures at the current price of 3,450 ringgit with a target of 3,250 ringgit. From third-quarter 2012, we recommend looking for any reversal in prices to the upside with a target of 3,700 ringgit."

On the technical front, a bearish target for palm oil at 3,439 ringgit remains unchanged as indicated by its wave pattern, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Oil prices held steady above $119 per barrel on Monday as the prospect of a third round of liquidity stimulus by the United States and a weaker dollar supported commodities.

In other vegetable oil markets, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for May inched down 0.4 percent. China's Dalian market was closed for a holiday and reopens on Wednesday. 

  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1007 GMT

  Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
  MY PALM OIL      MAY2    3472   -14.00    3472    3498     522
  MY PALM OIL      JUN2    3474   -35.00    3474    3513    3281
  MY PALM OIL      JUL2    3471   -34.00    3464    3505   12306
  CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP2    8774   +16.00    8760    8798   99450
  CHINA SOYOIL     SEP2    9946   +10.00    9928    9968  288440
  CBOT SOY OIL     JUL2   55.36    -0.17   55.30   55.66    6693
  NYMEX CRUDE      JUN2  104.28    -0.65  104.22  105.04   11786

  Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
  CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
  Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
  Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
  ($1 = 3.025 ringgit)