VEGOILS-Palm Rises to 13-Month High on Demand Hopes
05/04/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to an almost 13-month high on Wednesday, as traders continued to bet on a brighter demand outlook for palm oil following expectations of a smaller soybean crop in coming months.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a much-anticipated report on Friday that farmers would plant less soybean than expected, indicating global oilseed supply will tighten further and helping palm oil cross the psychological 3,500 ringgit mark.
"If you are talking about an extraordinary leap, rather than a minor day-to-day fluctuation, it's more likely credited to the USDA report," said Selena Leong, an analyst at DMG & Partners Research in Singapore.
"It's not so much on the absolute value (of the soybean crop) but more on the fact that it's below market expectation. It's hard to say when the rally's going to stop. It's been going strong ... how long it will last is anybody's guess, but right now it's still looking quite good."
Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to close at 3,557 ringgit ($1,161) per tonne. Prices went to 3,574 ringgit, a level not seen since March 9 last year.
Traded volumes stood at around 20,989 lots of 25 tonnes each, lighter than the usual 25,000 lots.
Palm oil is expected to range between 3,528 ringgit and 3,590 ringgit per tonne for one trading session before either dropping below or rising above that range, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Exports of palm oil from No.2 producer Malaysia rose in March from a month ago, after four straight months of declines, as indicated by data from cargo surveyors.
Market players have also turned their focus to Malaysian palm oil stocks, which stayed above 2 million tonnes in February, to determine the consumption and production trend for the edible oil. Stocks data for March will be released next week by industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
Oil prices dipped towards $124 a barrel on Wednesday on worries demand for crude could be curtailed after the U.S. central bank dashed hopes of further economic stimulus and news Saudi Arabia would likely keep output high in the event of a stock release.
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for May edged up 0.1 percent in Asian trade.
China's Dalian Commodity exchange is closed for public holidays and trading will resume on Thursday.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1002 GM
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL APR2 3585 +5.00 3580 3612 308
MY PALM OIL MAY2 3562 +10.00 3552 3586 2059
MY PALM OIL JUN2 3557 +24.00 3538 3574 12126
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP2 8574 -104.00 8570 8636 135300
CHINA SOYOIL SEP2 9560 -100.00 9558 9612 374854
CBOT SOY OIL MAY2 55.97 +0.07 55.90 56.15 3570
NYMEX CRUDE MAY2 103.28 -0.72 103.02 104.12 20526
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.062 ringgit)