VEGOILS-Palm Oil Hits One-year High on U.S Soy Acreage Drop
03/04/2012 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to their highest in more than a year on Monday after a U.S. government report showed farmers would plant less soybeans, setting the stage for tighter edible oil supply this year at a time of strong global demand.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said farmers would plant 2 percent less of the soybean crop than expected, sending soybean prices to a six-month high on Friday and now helping palm oil to cross 3,500 ringgit for the first time this year.
"This is good news for crude palm oil prices in the near term, as it could lead to a smaller soybean crop, which would mean less soybean oil," Kuala Lumpur-based CIMB Investment Bank analyst Ivy Ng said in a note to clients.
"This may spark a price rally for crude palm oil in the second quarter and reinforces our trading buy call on the sector."
Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange climbed 2.9 percent to close at 3,532 ringgit ($1,157) per tonne. Prices went as high as 3,541 ringgit, a level unseen since March 9 last year.
Traded volumes stood at around 24,650 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots, as some dealers remained cautious.
Yet traders and analysts expect palm oil prices to get a further boost from the drought in soy-exporting South America, which has withered crops.
"We think global soybean supply will still be very tight this year, given steady deterioration of the soybean crops in South America, especially Brazil, due to drought," said Alan Lim, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank.
"Crude palm oil will benefit from this as it is commonly used as a substitute for soybean oil."
Malaysian palm oil is expected to hover around a resistance at 3,528 ringgit per tonne before surging further to 3,590 ringgit, as indicated by technical analysis, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
Export demand for palm oil has been picking up in Malaysia after four straight months of declines. March palm oil exports rose 4.8 percent, according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services.
Brent crude rose above $123 on Monday after positive manufacturing data from China eased fears of a sharp economic slowdown in the world's second-largest oil consumer and continuing tension in the Middle East threatened crude supplies.
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active U.S. soyoil contract for May gained 0.7 percent in Asian trade, supported by the bullish USDA report.
The most active September 2012 soyoil contract on China's Dalian Commodity exchange was trading down 1.0 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1004 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL APR2 3570 +90.00 3520 3570 349
MY PALM OIL MAY2 3541 +92.00 3513 3550 1863
MY PALM OIL JUN2 3532 +99.00 3501 3541 12589
CHINA PALM OLEIN SEP2 8574 -104.00 8570 8636 135300
CHINA SOYOIL SEP2 9560 -100.00 9558 9612 374854
CBOT SOY OIL MAY2 55.48 +0.38 55.14 55.55 7705
NYMEX CRUDE MAY2 102.51 -0.51 102.40 103.58 15927
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.0525 ringgit)