Berita Arkib

Kuala Lumpur, 02 August 2001(Business Times) - PALM oil prices, which sawgains of RM30 a tonne yesterday, may see the uptrend moderate in the nearterm as the current level of between RM1,200 and RM1,300 may start todeter fresh uptake by traditional buyers, dealers say.

Kuala Lumpur, 7/31/2001(soyatech) - RISING global demand, compounded byfalling supply of edible oils, is likely to continue to push palm oilprices higher for the next year and a half.And as the leading producer of palm oil accounting for half the world'stotal supply, Malaysia can look to at least one bright spot in the economyas electronic exports continue to falter.Crude palm oil (CPO) prices have shot up from 10-year lows and doubledtheir levels from the start of this year.Most of the gains were seen in the last month, when benchmark three-monthCPO futures jumped from around RM800 per tonne to peak at RM1,200 pertonne last week before falling back closer to RM1,100. Prices recoveredthis week, and are expected to keep tracing a rising trend despite minorcorrections.A stronger currency for Indonesia, the next largest oil palm producer andMalaysia's nearest competitor, is expected to help Malaysian CPO prices inthe near term. A seasonal increase in demand over the next two months fromIndia in preparation for the Indian New Year, Deepavali, will also boostMalaysian CPO price, which is expected to be strongly supported at theRM1,100 levels, traders said.'I am revising my estimate of average prices up to the end of next yearfrom US$350 to US$400 per tonne,' said Hamdan Abdul Majeed, plantationsanalyst at HSBC Securities.Citing data from the trade magazine Oil World, Mr Hamdan said the combineddemand from the main palm oil consumers - China, India and Pakistan - isexpected to increase by close to 23 per cent to 10.6 million tonnes by2005. CPO production, on the other hand, is expected to slow in the mediumterm due to the downtrend in biological yields, slower to mature newplantings and lower yielding crops as a result of reduced fertiliser use.Faced with languishing prices and rising inventories over the last twoyears, palm oil producers resorted to reducing fertiliser use in order tocut costs.Malaysia's palm oil production fell by 6.1 per cent month-on-month in Junethis year, the first decline in three months. The Malaysian Oil PalmBoard's unofficial estimates on Tuesday put July's production at under onemillion tonnes for the first time in two years.Despite the fall in production, exports continue to increase, following an11 per cent rise in June.The mismatch in production and sales has helped reduce inventories.Malaysia's stock of palm oil peaked at 1.5 million tonnes last November,and fell to just over one million tonnes by June.Forecasters estimate current stocks to be around 0.95 million tonnes,three times the 0.3 million tonnes seen in the first half of 1998, whenCPO prices were RM2,400 per tonne.Malaysian Primary Industries Minister Lim Keng Yaik has exhorted producersto sell existing stocks instead of hoarding in the hope of getting higherprices. An extremely weak ringgit in 1998 - the RM-US$ exchange rates was20 per cent below today's levels - contributed to the high prices for CPO,which is traded in US dollars.The effect of rising CPO prices on actual economic growth will, however,be minimal. 'Palm oil accounts for 33 per cent of the agricultural sectorand 0.03 per cent of GDP growth,' said economist Lee Heng Guie of HLGSecurities. He expects the agricultural sector to grow by 5 per cent thisyear.Plantation stocks in the stock market will feel a more direct impact. Theentire sector is likely to be re-rated as companies revise their earningsupwards.An added bonus is the fact that as US dollar earners, plantations alsostand to gain in the event of a devaluation of the ringgit.Plantation companies expecting strong earnings in the current and nextfinancial year could see a bigger windfall if poor weather conditionsreduce soybean crops.'If El Nino hits the planting season this year and the next, prices arelikely to overshoot current forecasts,' said HSBC's Mr Hamdan, who has hadan overweight recommendation on the sector from as early as February thisyear.

USA, 7/31/2001

30 July 2001 (Business Times) - PRIMARY Industries Minister Datuk Seri DrLim Keng Yaik says the long-term outlook of the palm oil industry remainsbright despite the current difficulties it is facing.

Tuesday, July 31, 2001(The Star) - MALAYSIAN palm oil producers arerejoicing over the recent surge in price but realise the sharp rise maynot last for long as authorities eye the Latin American market to keepprices firm.Melaka Tong Bee Sdn Bhd director Yang Chien Chu said that the outlook forpalm oil prices over the next six months remained uncertain."The industry was caught by surprise. It did not expect the market to comeup so fast. Of course everybody is happy. But we are still a bitconservative what will happen in the next few months," Yang told AFPduring a break at a conference on the outlook of the palm oil industry.Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producer, watched with dismay asthe price plunged from a high of RM2,377 a tonne in 1998 to around RM800in mid-July this year."But prices have risen sharply in the last two weeks and on Friday hitRM1,180 a tonne," Yang said.One analyst attributed the price hike to the expectation that India,Malaysia's top market and world's largest consumer of vegetable oil, wouldincrease its palm oil uptake in the coming months to stock up for theDeepavali festival in November."The question is whether India could sustain the buying after thefestival. That will influence future price direction," the analyst said.Yang also said that producers would be happy for the price to stabilisearound RM1,000 a tonne to enable Malaysian exporters to compete with otheredible oil producers."We feel the market will maintain at about RM1,000, which may be ahealthier level so that we will remain competitive in the world oilmarket," he said.According to Yang, his company, which owns 10,000ha of palm oil andproduces 36,000 tonnes of the oil per year, will adhere to thegovernment's proposal to sell forward."We will try because at RM1,200 per tonne, the price is good. There is avery good margin. Good to lock up some of our production just in case itdrops back to RM700 or RM800. At RM1,200 we are making RM400 to RM500 atonne," he said.Primary Industries Minister Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik had warned lastSaturday that the sudden sharp rise in palm oil prices was limited andproducers should cash in now."Sell now. Sell forward .... this is a good enough price. Sell whateveryou have," Lim told reporters.Malaysia produced 10.8 million tonnes of palm oil and contributed to 50%of production last year.Lim told producers at the conference that there was an immediate demandfor 300,000 tonnes of palm oil stearin for soap-making in Latin America.Acknowledging the shipping distance was long, Lim suggested that producersestablish a storage facility, either in Brazil, or Venezuela."The facility can meet any small orders from countries in the region sincestearin can be stored for a long period and the move will open new marketsfor Malaysia," he said.--AFP

Monday, July 30, 2001(The Star) - CRUDE PALM OIL futures prices on theMalaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) held steady for most of the sessionslast week and finally closed the week with moderate gains.Political uncertainties in Indonesia and the strong rebound in the ChicagoBoard of Trade soyoil prices supported sentiment.The October futures contract trended upwards from a week'slow of RM1,116to RM1,191 and closed the week higher at RM1,190, up RM43 per tonne from aweek ago.Based on chart, the October futures prices ended the week positive andappear set for more range-bound trading this week.Chart support for this week is revised higher to the RM1,150-RM1,130levels. Chart resistance for this week is pegged at the RM1,200-RM1,215levels.Based strictly on chart reading, the market would likely be locked in atrading band of between RM1,200 and RM1,130 levels.The 12-day exponentially smoothed moving-average price line (ESA) remainsin upward trend and ended the week higher at RM1,120. Based on theESA-lines, the market should stay constructive for the immediate term.Technically, the daily stochastics triggered the buy signal on July 26 andsignalled an upward wave has started.The oscillator per cent K settled the week above the oscillator per cent Dand closed lower at 55.41% and 33.40% respectively. Analysis of thestochastics shows the market has room for further advances.The daily Momentum Index (MI)has penetrated its downtrend resistance andsignalled an upward cycle has begun. The MI ended the week above the100-point mark and settled slightly lower at 121.90 points.The Moving-Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) remained constructiveduring Friday's close and continued to indicate the upward cycle isintact. The MACD and the trigger-line finished the week slightly lower at80.81 and 81.56 points respectively.

Monday, July 30, 2001(The Star) - PRIMARY Industries minister Datuk SeriDr Lim Keng Yaik on Saturday urged palm oil producers and exporters totake advantage of the current boost in crude palm oil (CPO) prices and toforward sell as much of their output as they can.He said palm oil exports would be greatly enhanced if producers/exporterssold forward as much as they could, and stocks would be reduced, ensuringa better price for the commodity."If they normally sell two to three months ahead, they should sell six to12 months if possible," said Lim at a press conference yesterday afterofficiating at a seminar organised by the Kuala Lumpur and SelangorChinese Chambers of Commerce & Industry on "The prospect and outlook forpalm oil in Malaysia."Lim lamented the fact that many producers who had complained aboutdepressed CPO prices were now reluctant to sell even when CPO prices hadreached about RM1,200 per tonne, from RM700-RM800 previously, as they wereholding out for closer to RM1,400-RM1,500 per tonne.The sudden rise in CPO prices over the past two weeks was also adouble-edged sword.While it meant better times for those involved in the sector, it may alsoput a spanner in the ministry's replanting efforts.Lim said he was afraid that some of the 4,300 applicants who hadregistered for the ministry's replanting plan would now "run away" in thelight of better palm oil prices.The ministry wants to reduce CPO production and has urged plantationowners to cut down older plants which are not as productive and to replantthem with higher yielding seedlings.The government has offered a special one-off incentive of RM1,000 perhectare to smallholders and plantations that carry out the replantingbefore year end.Moreover, smallholders have the option of taking up a government loan ofRM6,000 per hectare.As of July 10, the ministry had received 4,300 applications involving some150,000 hectares, and had been confident of achieving its target ofreplanting 200,000 hectares by the end of the year. This would havereduced CPO production by 600,000 tonnes.Lim said he was hopeful CPO prices would remain at current levels if thesector continued to work at reducing its stock and grow its exports."But I have to warn the industry that the rise in CPO is not confined toit. Rapeseed and soya bean oil prices have also increased as of weatherreports in those countries say it is not favourable," he said.

KUALA LUMPUR, July 28 (Bernama) -- Plantation owners and smallholders areadvised to proceed with their replanting plans and exporters to sell theirstocks as much as possible in order to keep palm oil price steady at thecurrent level of RM1,000 per tonne.

7/27/2001 (The Economist Intelligence Unit ) - China's new GMO regulationsare already making an impact particularly on soybean trade. But the futureof bio-tech products in China remains far from certain.

7/27/2001(The Economist Intelligence Unit) - For all the disagreementbetween China and its future WTOtrading partners on agricultural subsidiesand market access (see "The grapefruit of wrath", BC, Jan 29th), soybeanshas been the one bright spot on China's agricultural import portfolio anda major success story for exporters from the US, Argentina and Brazil.Over the past five years, China has modernised its oilseed-crushingindustry, resulting in greater consolidation and higher productivity,which has helped push down domestic prices for oil and oilseed meal closerto world price levels. This has made imported soybean meal and oil lessattractive, and imports of both commodities today are down to just one-quarter of 1996 levels. Meanwhile, China's annual crushing capacity grew10% last year, to 23m tonnes, and is expected to grow 13% in 2001. Thishas propelled demand for raw materials--bulk soybeans.The oilseed-crushing industry's growth has been driven mainly by theconstruction of modern facilities in eastern and southern China. Thecountry's major soybean production areas, however, are concentrated in thenorth-east. Unreliable and expensive inland transportation inhibits thedistribution of domestic soybeans at a competitive price to crushersacross the country. As a result, the newly revived oilseed-crushingindustry has come to depend on imported soybeans, which are cheaper, ofhigher quality and available throughout the year. Imports of soybeans,which account for the majority of oilseeds China sources from abroad, havesurged more than 10 times over the past five years. Last year, Chinaimported 10.4m tonnes of soybeans, and by May of 2001 had bought another4.6m tonnes.In response to falling grain prices, the Chinese government has beenencouraging farmers to plant soybeans. In 2000, total soybean-sown areareached 9.2m ha--an increase of 15% over 1999--and production rose to anestimated 15.7m tonnes. Inherent inefficiency in domestic farm production,however, still render Chinese soybeans unable to withstand direct foreigncompetition. Traditional state-subsidised procurement systems haveresulted in excessive stock build-ups, which have further distortedbalance between demand and supply.Soybean imports have been more dramatically affected by a new law,introduced on June 6th, requiring safety certification and labelling ofagricultural GMOs. GMO soybeans account for 63% of total soybean acreagein the US, 50% in Argentina, and over 20% in Brazil. Currently, none ofthese exporters segregate GMO and non-GMO soybeans domestically. Theadditional cost to have US soybeans labelled, obtain safety certificates,and cover inspection fees is estimated at about US$30 per tonne. No newpurchases have been signed since June 6th and multinational traders haveraised the deposit rate on soybean contracts to 20%, from the usual 5-10%.

25 July,2001 (Oil World Flash) - Malaysian palm oil prices recoveredyesterday and have a further rally potential in the weeks ahead due to theoutlook for a decline in stocks below the year-ago level. A slowing-downof the production coupled with continued high demand will already reducetotal Malaysian palm oil stocks below the year-ago level as of end-July.Prospects for a slowing-down of production for the remainder of this yearcould lead to a significant drawdown of stocks as end-December. Within thenext 3-5 months palm oil could even rise to a premium vis-a-vis soybeanoil. This would then shift world import demand for vegetable oil also toUS soybean oil, particularly in Oct/March 2001/02.We currently estimate total Malaysian palm oil stocks at 1.02 Mn T as ofend-July, down from the 1.08 Mn T a year ago. As of end-June stocks werevirtually unchanged from the year-ago level at 1.03 Mn T. We estimatetotal palm oil exports from Malaysia at around 870 Thd T in July, which isdown from the near-record 970 Thd T in June but still up sharply from the722 Thd T exported inJuly 2000.Some Malaysian sources indicate that Malaysian stocks as of end-July wouldbe even lower at between 0.97 and 1.0 Mn T. Malaysian palm oil exports forthe first 25 days of July amounted to 721 Thd T, down 8% from a monthearlier (according to data supplied by Intertech Testing Services thismorning), but still up sharply from last year. Very big exports took placeto the EU and India.The slowing-down of the Malaysian palm oil production will be due to adecline in the biological yield cycle (partly linked to the previousfertilizer cut) but also to a intensi-fied cuttings of old palm trees. Wereported last week that 175 Thd ha of old trees have been registered forreplanting within the government programme launched earlier this year tostimulate the necessary replanting which had been postponed and delayed inpreceding years. The government is supporting the replantings with asubsidy of Ringgit 1000 per hectare. Under current regulationsthese replantings must occur until end-December. It is possible, however,that this date might be pushed forward until next year.Dryness has become a problem in several palm oil growing areas of West andEast Malaysia. Rainfall was deficient in May with only an average 71% ofnormal in West Malaysia and 63% of normal in Sabah. According to tradereports it remains drier than usually in June and the first two weeks ofJuly. The situation must be ob-served closely, because continued drynesswould affect the trees and have an impact on production in the secondhalf of next year and early 2003.

Trans fats more harmful than saturated fats, says AHA study7/27/2001 (DataTimes )- Remember when wolfing down a big plate of fries atthe drive-in went from fun to frightful?It started when scientists discovered the heart-related dangers of foodssoaked in saturated fats, including animal-based fats like lard and palmand coconut oils. They said the solution was to cook those fries (ordoughnuts or cookies or pies) with trans fat, better known as hydrogenatedvegetable oil.Well, hold onto your junk food coupons, campers: A study reported lastweek by the American Heart Association says foods cooked with trans fatsmay be more harmful to your blood vessels than those cooked inold-fashioned saturated fat.But before you celebrate, here's the rub: Neither fat is good for you."It's not so much that we should be deciding to choose one fat overanother. The real message in this study is the need to reduce our intakeof both trans fats and saturated fats," says Cindy Moore, director ofNutrition Therapy for the Cleveland Clinic Foundation and a spokeswomanfor the American Dietetic Association.The goal of the research was "to compare saturated fats with trans fatsbecause of their potential to affect HDL levels," says lead study authorNicole DeRoos of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. HDL, or highdensity lipoprotein, is the "good" cholesterol that helps prevent heartdisease.DeRoos says the research showed that trans fats reduced blood vesselfunction nearly one-third more than saturated, lardlike fats, and theyreduced HDL cholesterol levels up to one-fifth more than saturated fats,increasing the risk of heart disease.DeRoos says the nasty effects are partly the result of the hydrogenationprocess that infuses substances like corn or soybean oil with a hydrogenatom, turning liquid oils to solid fats at room temperature. Trans fat,called "hydrogenated" or "partially hydrogenated" oils, are listed on thelabel of your favorite cookies, cakes or pies.While the negative effects of trans fats may be new to most folks, thefinding is no surprise to Moore and other nutrition experts."I think this demonstrates the ongoing recommendation of the AmericanHeart Association and others that we need to limit the amount of saturatedfats as well as trans fatty acids in our diet to no more than 10 percentof our total fat intake," Moore says.She says the rest of our fat intake, which should amount to no more than35 percent of our total dietary calories, should come from mono- orpolyunsaturated fats, like olive or canola oils in their natural, liquidstate."The chemical structure of these fats are different, and they do not havethe negative impact on our health as do the other fats. In fact, they canbe good for us," Moore says.DeRoos also warns: "Ready-made foods such as french fries, doughnuts andcrackers are the main source [of trans fatty acids in our diet], andlow-fat margarines rich in polyunsaturated fat and low in saturated fatsare still a healthier alternative than butter."